Week 11 · Saturday, Nov 14 · 12:00 PM ET · Jack Trice Stadium
Cincinnati at Iowa State
The machine favors Iowa State by 5.0 (the machine's margin) and gives it 63% to win.
After Week 10 the machine rates Iowa State No. 50 and Cincinnati No. 61, 2.5 points apart; Iowa State is at home. The widest gap on the field: Cincinnati's yards per play ranks No. 12 and Iowa State's defense against it ranks No. 121, an edge to Cincinnati's offense.
When Cincinnati has the ball
Cincinnati's offense against Iowa State's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | Cincinnati offense | Iowa State defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 33.0No. 35 | 28.9No. 105 | CIN offense |
| Yards per play | 6.8No. 12 | 6.3No. 121 | CIN offense |
| Yards per carry | 5.8No. 4 | 4.7No. 104 | CIN offense |
| Yards per pass attempt | 8.1No. 34 | 7.9No. 116 | CIN offense |
| Explosive pass rate | 9.4%No. 91 | 10.1%No. 82 | Even |
When Iowa State has the ball
Iowa State's offense against Cincinnati's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | Iowa State offense | Cincinnati defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 29.2No. 61 | 29.4No. 109 | ISU offense |
| Yards per play | 6.0No. 53 | 6.5No. 127 | ISU offense |
| Yards per carry | 4.9No. 37 | 4.8No. 111 | ISU offense |
| Yards per pass attempt | 7.3No. 79 | 7.8No. 109 | ISU offense |
| Explosive pass rate | 11.6%No. 42 | 11.1%No. 105 | ISU offense |
Strengths and weak spots
Each team's three best and three worst national ranks on a fixed list of 18 headline stats, each set against the other team's rank on the matching stat.
Cincinnati
Strengths
- Red-zone TD rateOffenseNo. 1Iowa State red-zone td rate allowed: No. 109
- Yards per carryOffenseNo. 4Iowa State yards per carry allowed: No. 104
- Yards per playOffenseNo. 12Iowa State yards per play allowed: No. 121
Weak spots
- Yards per play allowedDefenseNo. 127Iowa State yards per play: No. 53
- Third-down rate allowedDefenseNo. 122Iowa State third-down rate: No. 110
- Yards per carry allowedDefenseNo. 111Iowa State yards per carry: No. 37
Iowa State
Strengths
- Red-zone TD rateOffenseNo. 18Cincinnati red-zone td rate allowed: No. 41
- GiveawaysOffenseNo. 25Cincinnati takeaways: No. 49
- Yards per carryOffenseNo. 37Cincinnati yards per carry allowed: No. 111
Weak spots
- Yards per play allowedDefenseNo. 121Cincinnati yards per play: No. 12
- Sack rate (defense)DefenseNo. 120Cincinnati sacks allowed (rate): No. 82
- Yards per pass attempt allowedDefenseNo. 116Cincinnati yards per pass attempt: No. 34
Swing stats
The stats that swing close games: turnovers, third down, the red zone and sacks. Season figures, national rank under each.
| Stat | Cincinnati | Iowa State |
|---|---|---|
| Turnover margin (season) | +512 forced, 7 lost | +210 forced, 8 lost |
| Third-down rate | 47.0%No. 21 | 35.0%No. 110 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 44.3%No. 122 | 38.1%No. 63 |
| Red-zone TD rate | 81.8%No. 1 | 72.7%No. 18 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 54.1%No. 41 | 66.7%No. 109 |
| Sacks allowed (rate) | 6.0%No. 82 | 6.2%No. 91 |
| Sack rate (defense) | 4.3%No. 105 | 3.7%No. 120 |
The line
Shown for information. The betting line is not an input to the machine, and nothing here is picks or advice. 5 pulls this week, Nov 9 to Nov 13.
- Iowa State by 2.5 on Nov 9, Iowa State by 3 now (Nov 13).
- It has moved 0.5 points toward Iowa State.
- For comparison, the machine's margin is Iowa State by 5.0; the betting line is Iowa State by 3.
Game-day notes
Information only. The weather is not in the machine's number; a confirmed starting-quarterback absence already is.
- Kickoff forecast (as of Nov 13): 39°F, wind 7 mph, no rain or snow.
The machine's number counts one kind of news: a confirmed absence of a starting quarterback. It does not use other injuries, weather or news, and knows nothing about suspensions or depth charts. Any weather or quarterback notes on this page are information, not inputs.
Pre-game numbers, saved Nov 13, 12:52 AM ET: the machine's chance and margin as frozen Nov 12, 5:16 PM ET; ratings, ranks and records after Week 10; season stats as of Nov 11, 12:11 PM ET. They are never recomputed after kickoff; the final score is added once the game is played. Edge = the better side by at least 30 places in the national ranks; anything closer is even.
Cincinnati team page · Iowa State team page · All of this week's games