The Machine

Iowa State

Big 12 · 4-5CFP unranked

Iowa State is 4-5 and No. 50 of 138 in the machine's ratings, 4.0 points better than an average FBS team. Last game: lost 42-31 at Baylor in Week 10.

Week 11: vs Cincinnati, Saturday, Nov 14: the matchup, unit by unit

Machine rankNo. 50of all FBS teams
Rating now4.04.0 points better than an average FBS team
Since July+4.9from −0.9 in the preseason rating

Why Iowa State is No. 50

  • Iowa State's rating is 4.0: the machine's estimate that Iowa State is 4.0 points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field. That is No. 50 of 138. For scale, 0 is an average FBS team: right now the closest to it is No. 68 Arizona State (0.2).
  • It started the season at −0.9, ESPN's preseason Football Power Index from July. Its results since have moved it up 4.9.
  • The biggest weekly moves: +3.8 after Week 3 (W 55-7 vs Bowling Green) and +2.7 after Week 2 (L 13-16 at Iowa).
  • Its record is 4-5. The 5 losses were to No. 12 Utah, No. 17 Iowa, No. 22 BYU, No. 26 Arizona, No. 29 Baylor, by 15.6 points on average. The 4 wins came by 20.2 points on average; the best was over No. 24 Oklahoma State. The rating weighs how much a team won or lost by and against whom, not just the win-loss count.
  • Its FBS opponents so far average No. 40 in the machine's ratings.
  • Just above is No. 49 Virginia Tech (4.5); just below is No. 51 James Madison (3.9).

The rating, week by week

Strengths and weak spots

Head coach

Jimmy Rogers is in his 1st season at Iowa State. This season: 4-5.

Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com.

Team stats

Season totals and averages over 9 games, each with its national rank among 138 FBS teams (No. 1 = best). The game-by-game story is in the season, week by week.

Passing

Completions-attempts145-245
Passing yards1803
Touchdowns-interceptions14-5
Yards per attempt*7.3No. 79 of 138
Explosive pass rate11.6%No. 42 of 138
Sacks allowed (rate)6.2%No. 91 of 138

Rushing

Carries-yards335-1629
Yards per carry4.9No. 37 of 138
10-plus-yard runs (rate)16.1%No. 31 of 138
Stuffed at or behind the line (rate)20.8%No. 119 of 138

Scoring

Points per game29.2No. 61 of 138
Yards per play5.96No. 53 of 138
Third-down rate35.0%No. 110 of 138
Red-zone TD rate72.7%No. 18 of 138
Giveaways8No. 25 of 138

Defense

Points allowed per game28.9No. 105 of 138
Yards per play allowed6.28No. 121 of 138
Yards per pass attempt allowed7.9No. 116 of 138
Yards per carry allowed4.7No. 104 of 138
Sack rate3.7%No. 120 of 138
Takeaways10No. 79 of 138
Third-down rate allowed38.1%No. 63 of 138

Totals are the official box score. * Yards per attempt and the rates come from the play-by-play, where passing yards count on completions only, so they can differ from the box score by a play or two.

Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com.

Player leaders

The top 3 in each category over the same games. Passing yards count every completion (official box score).

Passing

  1. Jaylen Raynor133-223, 1672 yds, 12 TD, 5 INT
  2. Connor Moberly9-19, 83 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

Rushing

  1. Aiden Flora157 carries, 1119 yds, 9 TD
  2. Jaylen Raynor79 carries, 216 yds, 5 TD
  3. Arnold Barnes32 carries, 113 yds, 2 TD

Receiving

  1. Jamal Polite Jr.17 catches, 321 yds, 2 TD
  2. Omari Hayes24 catches, 274 yds, 1 TD
  3. Cody Jackson15 catches, 255 yds, 1 TD

Tackles

  1. Sullivan Schlimgen84
  2. Carson Willich54
  3. Seth Johnson29

Sacks

  1. Isaac Terrell3
  2. Sullivan Schlimgen2
  3. Blake Hawkins1

Interceptions

  1. Beau Goodwin2
  2. Beni Ngoyi1

Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com.

Who's playing

Based on who has actually played this season, from the box scores, not the team's published depth chart. Each bar is that player's share of the team's attempts, carries (quarterbacks left out), catches or tackles. The box score lists no positions, so there is no offensive line here.

Throwing

  1. Jaylen RaynorMost passes in the last game9 games223 attempts91%
  2. Connor Moberly3 games19 attempts8%

Carrying

  1. Aiden Flora9 games157 carries66%
  2. Arnold Barnes9 games32 carries14%
  3. Cameron Pettaway6 games22 carries9%
  4. Ryver Peppers2 games10 carries4%

Catching

  1. Omari Hayes9 games24 catches17%
  2. Aiden Flora6 games17 catches12%
  3. Jamal Polite Jr.8 games17 catches12%
  4. Tyler Claiborne8 games17 catches12%

Tackling

  1. Sullivan Schlimgen9 games84 tackles15%
  2. Carson Willich9 games54 tackles10%
  3. Seth Johnson8 games29 tackles5%
  4. Duhron Goodman8 games28 tackles5%

Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com.

The season, week by week

  1. Week 1 W 38–10 vs Southeast Missouri State. Southeast Missouri State is an FCS team, so there is no FBS baseline to grade this one against. Won the turnover battle by 2.
  2. Week 2 L 13–16 at Iowa. The run game was the strength: 4.1 yards a carry, 1.8 more than Iowa usually allows.
  3. Week 3 W 55–7 vs Bowling Green. The run game was the strength: 7.9 yards a carry, 3.4 more than Bowling Green usually allows. Its most yards a carry of the season.
  4. Week 4 L 17–31 vs Utah. The passing game struggled: 5.1 yards an attempt, 2.1 less than Utah usually allows. Lost the turnover battle by 2.
  5. Week 5 W 45–42 vs West Virginia. The run defense gave ground: West Virginia got 7.3 yards a carry, 2.9 over what it usually gains. The most yards a carry it has allowed all season.
  6. Week 6 L 10–24 at BYU. The pass defense gave ground: BYU got 11.0 yards an attempt, 3.6 over what it usually gains. Its fewest yards an attempt of the season.
  7. Week 8 L 3–39 at Arizona. The run game struggled: 1.7 yards a carry, 2.5 less than Arizona usually allows. Its fewest yards a carry of the season.
  8. Week 9 W 51–49 vs Oklahoma State. The run game was the strength: 6.2 yards a carry, 2.6 more than Oklahoma State usually allows. The machine had Oklahoma State by 4.6 (61%), so this was a win it did not see coming.
  9. Week 10 L 31–42 at Baylor. The run game was the strength: 5.1 yards a carry, 2.2 more than Baylor usually allows.

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