The Machine

Arizona

Big 12 · 7-2CFP 23

Arizona is 7-2, No. 23 in the CFP rankings, and No. 26 of 138 in the machine's ratings, 12.2 points better than an average FBS team. Last game: won 29-28 vs TCU in Week 10. The machine gives Arizona a 6% chance to make the playoff.

Week 11: vs Utah, Saturday, Nov 14: the matchup, unit by unit

Machine rankNo. 26of all FBS teams
Rating now12.212.2 points better than an average FBS team
Since July+5.0from 7.2 in the preseason rating
Playoff chance6%of the machine's simulated seasons

Why Arizona is No. 26

  • Arizona's rating is 12.2: the machine's estimate that Arizona is 12.2 points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field. That is No. 26 of 138. For scale, 0 is an average FBS team: right now the closest to it is No. 68 Arizona State (0.2).
  • It started the season at 7.2, ESPN's preseason Football Power Index from July. Its results since have moved it up 5.0.
  • The biggest weekly moves: +2.8 after Week 5 (W 34-7 vs Cincinnati) and +2.6 after Week 8 (W 39-3 vs Iowa State).
  • Its record is 7-2. The 2 losses were to No. 21 Texas Tech, No. 22 BYU, by 9.5 points on average. The 7 wins came by 21.1 points on average; the best was over No. 43 TCU. The rating weighs how much a team won or lost by and against whom, not just the win-loss count.
  • Its FBS opponents so far average No. 61 in the machine's ratings.
  • Just above is No. 25 SMU (12.2); just below is No. 27 Louisville (12.1).

The rating, week by week

Strengths and weak spots

Head coach

Brent Brennan is in his 3rd season at Arizona (since 2024). This season: 7-2. At Arizona overall: 20-14, counting this season.

Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com.

Team stats

Season totals and averages over 9 games, each with its national rank among 138 FBS teams (No. 1 = best). The game-by-game story is in the season, week by week.

Passing

Completions-attempts233-321
Passing yards2889
Touchdowns-interceptions21-7
Yards per attempt*8.9No. 15 of 138
Explosive pass rate12.6%No. 26 of 138
Sacks allowed (rate)6.7%No. 98 of 138

Rushing

Carries-yards298-1197
Yards per carry4.0No. 91 of 138
10-plus-yard runs (rate)14.8%No. 51 of 138
Stuffed at or behind the line (rate)18.8%No. 93 of 138

Scoring

Points per game34.2No. 27 of 138
Yards per play6.67No. 17 of 138
Third-down rate50.4%No. 12 of 138
Red-zone TD rate60.5%No. 76 of 138
Giveaways9No. 36 of 138

Defense

Points allowed per game19.9No. 33 of 138
Yards per play allowed4.98No. 28 of 138
Yards per pass attempt allowed6.2No. 21 of 138
Yards per carry allowed3.7No. 42 of 138
Sack rate7.1%No. 33 of 138
Takeaways9No. 93 of 138
Third-down rate allowed39.1%No. 77 of 138

Totals are the official box score. * Yards per attempt and the rates come from the play-by-play, where passing yards count on completions only, so they can differ from the box score by a play or two.

Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com.

Player leaders

The top 3 in each category over the same games. Passing yards count every completion (official box score).

Passing

  1. Noah Fifita223-306, 2777 yds, 21 TD, 5 INT
  2. Sawyer Anderson10-15, 112 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT

Rushing

  1. Kedrick Reescano99 carries, 373 yds, 7 TD
  2. Antwan Roberts43 carries, 284 yds, 2 TD
  3. Quincy Craig41 carries, 264 yds, 2 TD

Receiving

  1. Isaiah Mizell40 catches, 753 yds, 7 TD
  2. Gio Richardson32 catches, 431 yds, 0 TD
  3. Tre Spivey22 catches, 314 yds, 4 TD

Tackles

  1. Taye Brown56
  2. Malcolm Hartzog39
  3. Cam Chapa38

Sacks

  1. Chase Kennedy5
  2. Dash Fifita3
  3. Cooper Blomstrom1.5

Interceptions

  1. Cam Chapa1
  2. Quinn Olson1
  3. Tyrese Boss1

Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com.

Who's playing

Based on who has actually played this season, from the box scores, not the team's published depth chart. Each bar is that player's share of the team's attempts, carries (quarterbacks left out), catches or tackles. The box score lists no positions, so there is no offensive line here.

Throwing

  1. Noah FifitaMost passes in the last game9 games306 attempts95%
  2. Sawyer Anderson4 games15 attempts5%

Carrying

  1. Kedrick Reescano9 games99 carries47%
  2. Antwan Roberts8 games43 carries20%
  3. Quincy Craig9 games41 carries19%
  4. Ismail Mahdi2 games12 carries6%

Catching

  1. Isaiah Mizell8 games40 catches17%
  2. Gio Richardson5 games32 catches14%
  3. Brandon Phelps9 games23 catches10%
  4. Tre Spivey5 games22 catches9%

Tackling

  1. Taye Brown9 games56 tackles10%
  2. Malcolm Hartzog9 games39 tackles7%
  3. Cam Chapa7 games38 tackles7%
  4. Lee Molette III9 games38 tackles7%

Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com.

The season, week by week

  1. Week 1 W 35–7 vs Northern Arizona. Northern Arizona is an FCS team, so there is no FBS baseline to grade this one against. Lost the turnover battle by 2.
  2. Week 2 L 17–28 at BYU. The passing game was the strength: 7.4 yards an attempt, 1.8 more than BYU usually allows. Its fewest yards an attempt of the season.
  3. Week 3 W 42–17 vs Northern Illinois. The run game struggled: 3.1 yards a carry, 2.6 less than Northern Illinois usually allows.
  4. Week 4 W 34–24 at Washington State. The run game struggled: 3.9 yards a carry, 1.5 less than Washington State usually allows.
  5. Week 5 W 34–7 vs Cincinnati. The run defense was the strength: Cincinnati got 2.6 yards a carry, 3.0 under what it usually gains. Its most yards a carry of the season.
  6. Week 6 W 52–31 at West Virginia. The passing game was the strength: 14.2 yards an attempt, 3.8 more than West Virginia usually allows. Its most yards an attempt of the season.
  7. Week 8 W 39–3 vs Iowa State. The run defense was the strength: Iowa State got 1.7 yards a carry, 3.7 under what it usually gains. The fewest yards a carry it has allowed all season.
  8. Week 9 L 26–34 at Texas Tech. The run game struggled: 0.4 yards a carry, 3.5 less than Texas Tech usually allows. The offense gave up 5 sacks.
  9. Week 10 W 29–28 vs TCU. The passing game was the strength: 8.5 yards an attempt, 2.5 more than TCU usually allows.

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