Week 11 · Saturday, Nov 14 · 7:30 PM ET · Arizona Stadium
Utah at Arizona
The machine favors Utah by 2.6 (the machine's margin) and gives it 56% to win.
After Week 10 the machine rates Utah No. 12 and Arizona No. 26, 5.1 points apart; Arizona is at home. The widest gap on the field: Arizona's yards per carry ranks No. 91 and Utah's defense against it ranks No. 47, an edge to Utah's defense.
When Utah has the ball
Utah's offense against Arizona's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | Utah offense | Arizona defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 37.7No. 13 | 19.9No. 33 | Even |
| Yards per play | 6.8No. 13 | 5.0No. 28 | Even |
| Yards per carry | 5.5No. 9 | 3.7No. 42 | UTAH offense |
| Yards per pass attempt | 8.3No. 29 | 6.2No. 21 | Even |
| Explosive pass rate | 11.7%No. 41 | 8.0%No. 28 | Even |
When Arizona has the ball
Arizona's offense against Utah's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | Arizona offense | Utah defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 34.2No. 27 | 16.3No. 15 | Even |
| Yards per play | 6.7No. 17 | 5.4No. 50 | ARIZ offense |
| Yards per carry | 4.0No. 91 | 3.7No. 47 | UTAH defense |
| Yards per pass attempt | 8.9No. 15 | 6.6No. 41 | Even |
| Explosive pass rate | 12.6%No. 26 | 9.7%No. 64 | ARIZ offense |
Strengths and weak spots
Each team's three best and three worst national ranks on a fixed list of 18 headline stats, each set against the other team's rank on the matching stat.
Utah
Strengths
- Third-down rateOffenseNo. 3Arizona third-down rate allowed: No. 77
- Yards per carryOffenseNo. 9Arizona yards per carry allowed: No. 42
- Red-zone TD rate allowedDefenseNo. 12Arizona red-zone td rate: No. 76
Weak spots
- Sack rate (defense)DefenseNo. 102Arizona sacks allowed (rate): No. 98
- GiveawaysOffenseNo. 86Arizona takeaways: No. 93
- Red-zone TD rateOffenseNo. 64Arizona red-zone td rate allowed: No. 43
Arizona
Strengths
- Third-down rateOffenseNo. 12Utah third-down rate allowed: No. 53
- Yards per pass attemptOffenseNo. 15Utah yards per pass attempt allowed: No. 41
- Yards per playOffenseNo. 17Utah yards per play allowed: No. 50
Weak spots
- Sacks allowed (rate)OffenseNo. 98Utah sack rate (defense): No. 102
- TakeawaysDefenseNo. 93Utah giveaways: No. 86
- Yards per carryOffenseNo. 91Utah yards per carry allowed: No. 47
Swing stats
The stats that swing close games: turnovers, third down, the red zone and sacks. Season figures, national rank under each.
| Stat | Utah | Arizona |
|---|---|---|
| Turnover margin (season) | +416 forced, 12 lost | 09 forced, 9 lost |
| Third-down rate | 53.1%No. 3 | 50.4%No. 12 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 36.3%No. 53 | 39.1%No. 77 |
| Red-zone TD rate | 61.9%No. 64 | 60.5%No. 76 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 40.9%No. 12 | 54.2%No. 43 |
| Sacks allowed (rate) | 3.9%No. 35 | 6.7%No. 98 |
| Sack rate (defense) | 4.5%No. 102 | 7.1%No. 33 |
The line
Shown for information. The betting line is not an input to the machine, and nothing here is picks or advice. 4 pulls this week, Nov 9 to Nov 13.
- Utah by 2.5 on Nov 9, Utah by 2.5 now (Nov 13).
- It has not moved this week.
- A look-ahead line on Nov 5, before this game week, had Utah by 1.5. It is not counted in the move.
- For comparison, the machine's margin is Utah by 2.6; the betting line is Utah by 2.5.
Game-day notes
Information only. The weather is not in the machine's number; a confirmed starting-quarterback absence already is.
- Kickoff forecast (as of Nov 13): 65°F, wind 11 mph, no rain or snow.
The machine's number counts one kind of news: a confirmed absence of a starting quarterback. It does not use other injuries, weather or news, and knows nothing about suspensions or depth charts. Any weather or quarterback notes on this page are information, not inputs.
Pre-game numbers, saved Nov 13, 12:52 AM ET: the machine's chance and margin as frozen Nov 12, 5:16 PM ET; ratings, ranks and records after Week 10; season stats as of Nov 11, 12:11 PM ET. They are never recomputed after kickoff; the final score is added once the game is played. Edge = the better side by at least 30 places in the national ranks; anything closer is even.
Utah team page · Arizona team page · All of this week's games