Week 11 · Saturday, Nov 14 · 10:30 PM ET · Gesa Field
Colorado State at Washington State
The machine favors Washington State by 8.5 (the machine's margin) and gives it 71% to win.
After Week 10 the machine rates Washington State No. 98 and Colorado State No. 123, 6.0 points apart; Washington State is at home. The widest gap on the field: Colorado State's yards per carry ranks No. 10 and Washington State's defense against it ranks No. 121, an edge to Colorado State's offense.
When Colorado State has the ball
Colorado State's offense against Washington State's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | Colorado State offense | Washington State defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 35.8No. 20 | 27.4No. 96 | CSU offense |
| Yards per play | 6.6No. 18 | 5.8No. 94 | CSU offense |
| Yards per carry | 5.4No. 10 | 5.0No. 121 | CSU offense |
| Yards per pass attempt | 7.7No. 54 | 6.7No. 47 | Even |
| Explosive pass rate | 10.6%No. 66 | 9.7%No. 66 | Even |
When Washington State has the ball
Washington State's offense against Colorado State's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | Washington State offense | Colorado State defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 19.0No. 130 | 44.8No. 138 | Even |
| Yards per play | 4.7No. 135 | 8.0No. 138 | Even |
| Yards per carry | 3.7No. 118 | 6.7No. 138 | Even |
| Yards per pass attempt | 5.5No. 137 | 11.1No. 138 | Even |
| Explosive pass rate | 3.6%No. 138 | 18.9%No. 138 | Even |
Strengths and weak spots
Each team's three best and three worst national ranks on a fixed list of 18 headline stats, each set against the other team's rank on the matching stat.
Colorado State
Strengths
- Red-zone TD rateOffenseNo. 3Washington State red-zone td rate allowed: No. 44
- Sacks allowed (rate)OffenseNo. 3Washington State sack rate (defense): No. 131
- Yards per carryOffenseNo. 10Washington State yards per carry allowed: No. 121
Weak spots
- Yards per play allowedDefenseNo. 138Washington State yards per play: No. 135
- Yards per pass attempt allowedDefenseNo. 138Washington State yards per pass attempt: No. 137
- Yards per carry allowedDefenseNo. 138Washington State yards per carry: No. 118
Washington State
Strengths
- Red-zone TD rateOffenseNo. 36Colorado State red-zone td rate allowed: No. 131
- Red-zone TD rate allowedDefenseNo. 44Colorado State red-zone td rate: No. 3
- Yards per pass attempt allowedDefenseNo. 47Colorado State yards per pass attempt: No. 54
Weak spots
- Explosive pass rateOffenseNo. 138Colorado State explosive passes allowed: No. 138
- Yards per pass attemptOffenseNo. 137Colorado State yards per pass attempt allowed: No. 138
- TakeawaysDefenseNo. 136Colorado State giveaways: No. 24
Swing stats
The stats that swing close games: turnovers, third down, the red zone and sacks. Season figures, national rank under each.
| Stat | Colorado State | Washington State |
|---|---|---|
| Turnover margin (season) | +614 forced, 8 lost | −86 forced, 14 lost |
| Third-down rate | 44.6%No. 31 | 34.1%No. 118 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 52.7%No. 137 | 39.8%No. 87 |
| Red-zone TD rate | 80.0%No. 3 | 68.4%No. 36 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 75.0%No. 131 | 54.3%No. 44 |
| Sacks allowed (rate) | 1.5%No. 3 | 8.1%No. 121 |
| Sack rate (defense) | 3.5%No. 124 | 2.9%No. 131 |
The line
Shown for information. The betting line is not an input to the machine, and nothing here is picks or advice. 4 pulls this week, Nov 9 to Nov 12.
- Washington State by 9.5 on Nov 9, Washington State by 8.5 now (Nov 12).
- It has moved 1 point toward Colorado State.
- For comparison, the machine's margin is Washington State by 8.5; the betting line is Washington State by 8.5.
Game-day notes
Information only. The weather is not in the machine's number; a confirmed starting-quarterback absence already is.
- Kickoff forecast (as of Nov 13): 45°F, wind 3 mph, no rain or snow.
The machine's number counts one kind of news: a confirmed absence of a starting quarterback. It does not use other injuries, weather or news, and knows nothing about suspensions or depth charts. Any weather or quarterback notes on this page are information, not inputs.
Pre-game numbers, saved Nov 13, 12:52 AM ET: the machine's chance and margin as frozen Nov 12, 5:16 PM ET; ratings, ranks and records after Week 10; season stats as of Nov 11, 12:11 PM ET. They are never recomputed after kickoff; the final score is added once the game is played. Edge = the better side by at least 30 places in the national ranks; anything closer is even.
Colorado State team page · Washington State team page · All of this week's games