Week 11 · Saturday, Nov 14 · 1:00 PM ET · Jerry Richardson Stadium
East Carolina at Charlotte
The machine favors East Carolina by 11.0 (the machine's margin) and gives it 75% to win.
After Week 10 the machine rates East Carolina No. 90 and Charlotte No. 130, 13.5 points apart; Charlotte is at home. The widest gap on the field: Charlotte's yards per play ranks No. 108 and East Carolina's defense against it ranks No. 30, an edge to East Carolina's defense.
When East Carolina has the ball
East Carolina's offense against Charlotte's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | East Carolina offense | Charlotte defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 23.6No. 101 | 38.3No. 137 | ECU offense |
| Yards per play | 5.2No. 115 | 6.4No. 122 | Even |
| Yards per carry | 4.4No. 62 | 4.7No. 102 | ECU offense |
| Yards per pass attempt | 6.0No. 133 | 8.4No. 132 | Even |
| Explosive pass rate | 9.1%No. 99 | 11.6%No. 112 | Even |
When Charlotte has the ball
Charlotte's offense against East Carolina's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | Charlotte offense | East Carolina defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 19.7No. 125 | 23.3No. 56 | ECU defense |
| Yards per play | 5.3No. 108 | 5.0No. 30 | ECU defense |
| Yards per carry | 3.8No. 105 | 3.5No. 31 | ECU defense |
| Yards per pass attempt | 6.8No. 103 | 7.1No. 66 | ECU defense |
| Explosive pass rate | 9.2%No. 98 | 10.1%No. 80 | Even |
Strengths and weak spots
Each team's three best and three worst national ranks on a fixed list of 18 headline stats, each set against the other team's rank on the matching stat.
East Carolina
Strengths
- Third-down rate allowedDefenseNo. 8Charlotte third-down rate: No. 127
- Sack rate (defense)DefenseNo. 12Charlotte sacks allowed (rate): No. 81
- Yards per play allowedDefenseNo. 30Charlotte yards per play: No. 108
Weak spots
- Yards per pass attemptOffenseNo. 133Charlotte yards per pass attempt allowed: No. 132
- Third-down rateOffenseNo. 126Charlotte third-down rate allowed: No. 127
- GiveawaysOffenseNo. 117Charlotte takeaways: No. 76
Charlotte
Strengths
- TakeawaysDefenseNo. 76East Carolina giveaways: No. 117
- Sacks allowed (rate)OffenseNo. 81East Carolina sack rate (defense): No. 12
- Red-zone TD rateOffenseNo. 84East Carolina red-zone td rate allowed: No. 49
Weak spots
- Points allowed per gameDefenseNo. 137East Carolina points per game: No. 101
- Yards per pass attempt allowedDefenseNo. 132East Carolina yards per pass attempt: No. 133
- GiveawaysOffenseNo. 127East Carolina takeaways: No. 50
Swing stats
The stats that swing close games: turnovers, third down, the red zone and sacks. Season figures, national rank under each.
| Stat | East Carolina | Charlotte |
|---|---|---|
| Turnover margin (season) | −312 forced, 15 lost | −610 forced, 16 lost |
| Third-down rate | 32.3%No. 126 | 32.2%No. 127 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 29.8%No. 8 | 47.0%No. 127 |
| Red-zone TD rate | 53.1%No. 105 | 59.1%No. 84 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 55.2%No. 49 | 70.7%No. 120 |
| Sacks allowed (rate) | 5.4%No. 70 | 6.0%No. 81 |
| Sack rate (defense) | 8.2%No. 12 | 4.4%No. 103 |
The line
Shown for information. The betting line is not an input to the machine, and nothing here is picks or advice. 4 pulls this week, Nov 9 to Nov 13.
- East Carolina by 11.5 on Nov 9, East Carolina by 11.5 now (Nov 13).
- It is back where it started this week, after moving in between.
- Step by step: East Carolina by 11.5 → East Carolina by 12.5 → East Carolina by 11.5.
- For comparison, the machine's margin is East Carolina by 11.0; the betting line is East Carolina by 11.5.
Game-day notes
Information only. The weather is not in the machine's number; a confirmed starting-quarterback absence already is.
- Kickoff forecast (as of Nov 13): 50°F, wind 11 mph, no rain or snow.
The machine's number counts one kind of news: a confirmed absence of a starting quarterback. It does not use other injuries, weather or news, and knows nothing about suspensions or depth charts. Any weather or quarterback notes on this page are information, not inputs.
Colours: East Carolina in its main colour on the dark page, because the two teams' colours are too alike there, so the two sides are easy to tell apart. Pre-game numbers, saved Nov 13, 12:52 AM ET: the machine's chance and margin as frozen Nov 12, 5:16 PM ET; ratings, ranks and records after Week 10; season stats as of Nov 11, 12:11 PM ET. They are never recomputed after kickoff; the final score is added once the game is played. Edge = the better side by at least 30 places in the national ranks; anything closer is even.
East Carolina team page · Charlotte team page · All of this week's games