Week 11 · Saturday, Nov 14 · 6:15 PM ET · Kroger Field
Florida at Kentucky
The machine favors Florida by 2.5 (the machine's margin) and gives it 56% to win.
After Week 10 the machine rates Florida No. 15 and Kentucky No. 33, 5.0 points apart; Kentucky is at home. The widest gap on the field: Kentucky's explosive pass rate ranks No. 69 and Florida's defense against it ranks No. 26, an edge to Florida's defense.
When Florida has the ball
Florida's offense against Kentucky's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | Florida offense | Kentucky defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 32.4No. 39 | 25.8No. 76 | FLA offense |
| Yards per play | 6.0No. 50 | 5.5No. 63 | Even |
| Yards per carry | 4.4No. 63 | 3.9No. 57 | Even |
| Yards per pass attempt | 8.0No. 39 | 6.8No. 51 | Even |
| Explosive pass rate | 10.6%No. 67 | 9.0%No. 47 | Even |
When Kentucky has the ball
Kentucky's offense against Florida's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | Kentucky offense | Florida defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 29.9No. 56 | 27.6No. 97 | UK offense |
| Yards per play | 6.0No. 54 | 5.5No. 68 | Even |
| Yards per carry | 4.7No. 48 | 4.0No. 64 | Even |
| Yards per pass attempt | 7.4No. 70 | 7.0No. 62 | Even |
| Explosive pass rate | 10.5%No. 69 | 7.8%No. 26 | FLA defense |
Strengths and weak spots
Each team's three best and three worst national ranks on a fixed list of 18 headline stats, each set against the other team's rank on the matching stat.
Florida
Strengths
- Explosive passes allowedDefenseNo. 26Kentucky explosive pass rate: No. 69
- Red-zone TD rateOffenseNo. 26Kentucky red-zone td rate allowed: No. 105
- Points per gameOffenseNo. 39Kentucky points allowed per game: No. 76
Weak spots
- Third-down rate allowedDefenseNo. 124Kentucky third-down rate: No. 111
- Points allowed per gameDefenseNo. 97Kentucky points per game: No. 56
- GiveawaysOffenseNo. 93Kentucky takeaways: No. 6
Kentucky
Strengths
- TakeawaysDefenseNo. 6Florida giveaways: No. 93
- GiveawaysOffenseNo. 26Florida takeaways: No. 77
- Explosive passes allowedDefenseNo. 47Florida explosive pass rate: No. 67
Weak spots
- Third-down rate allowedDefenseNo. 132Florida third-down rate: No. 49
- Third-down rateOffenseNo. 111Florida third-down rate allowed: No. 124
- Red-zone TD rate allowedDefenseNo. 105Florida red-zone td rate: No. 26
Swing stats
The stats that swing close games: turnovers, third down, the red zone and sacks. Season figures, national rank under each.
| Stat | Florida | Kentucky |
|---|---|---|
| Turnover margin (season) | −310 forced, 13 lost | +1018 forced, 8 lost |
| Third-down rate | 42.0%No. 49 | 34.9%No. 111 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 45.2%No. 124 | 47.7%No. 132 |
| Red-zone TD rate | 70.3%No. 26 | 62.5%No. 58 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 58.1%No. 64 | 65.6%No. 105 |
| Sacks allowed (rate) | 5.3%No. 68 | 6.6%No. 97 |
| Sack rate (defense) | 6.2%No. 53 | 5.7%No. 72 |
The line
Shown for information. The betting line is not an input to the machine, and nothing here is picks or advice. 4 pulls this week, Nov 9 to Nov 13.
- Kentucky by 3.5 on Nov 9, Kentucky by 3 now (Nov 13).
- It has moved 0.5 points toward Florida.
- A look-ahead line on Nov 5, before this game week, had Kentucky by 1.5. It is not counted in the move.
- For comparison, the machine's margin is Florida by 2.5; the betting line is Kentucky by 3.
Game-day notes
Information only. The weather is not in the machine's number; a confirmed starting-quarterback absence already is.
- Kickoff forecast (as of Nov 13): 38°F, wind 6 mph, no rain or snow.
The machine's number counts one kind of news: a confirmed absence of a starting quarterback. It does not use other injuries, weather or news, and knows nothing about suspensions or depth charts. Any weather or quarterback notes on this page are information, not inputs.
Colours: Florida in its second colour on the light page, because the two teams' colours are too alike there, so the two sides are easy to tell apart. Pre-game numbers, saved Nov 13, 12:52 AM ET: the machine's chance and margin as frozen Nov 12, 5:16 PM ET; ratings, ranks and records after Week 10; season stats as of Nov 11, 12:11 PM ET. They are never recomputed after kickoff; the final score is added once the game is played. Edge = the better side by at least 30 places in the national ranks; anything closer is even.
Florida team page · Kentucky team page · All of this week's games