Week 11 · Saturday, Nov 14 · 12:30 PM ET · Memorial Stadium (Clemson, SC)
Georgia Tech at Clemson
The machine favors Clemson by 13.3 (the machine's margin) and gives it 80% to win.
After Week 10 the machine rates Clemson No. 41 and Georgia Tech No. 74, 10.8 points apart; Clemson is at home. The widest gap on the field: Georgia Tech's yards per carry ranks No. 100 and Clemson's defense against it ranks No. 36, an edge to Clemson's defense.
When Georgia Tech has the ball
Georgia Tech's offense against Clemson's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | Georgia Tech offense | Clemson defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 23.9No. 98 | 20.7No. 40 | CLEM defense |
| Yards per play | 5.6No. 95 | 5.0No. 33 | CLEM defense |
| Yards per carry | 3.9No. 100 | 3.6No. 36 | CLEM defense |
| Yards per pass attempt | 7.0No. 93 | 6.6No. 37 | CLEM defense |
| Explosive pass rate | 9.3%No. 95 | 9.4%No. 58 | CLEM defense |
When Clemson has the ball
Clemson's offense against Georgia Tech's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | Clemson offense | Georgia Tech defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 22.7No. 105 | 32.2No. 121 | Even |
| Yards per play | 5.0No. 127 | 6.1No. 114 | Even |
| Yards per carry | 4.0No. 93 | 5.1No. 123 | CLEM offense |
| Yards per pass attempt | 6.0No. 132 | 7.4No. 87 | GT defense |
| Explosive pass rate | 8.5%No. 111 | 11.7%No. 117 | Even |
Strengths and weak spots
Each team's three best and three worst national ranks on a fixed list of 18 headline stats, each set against the other team's rank on the matching stat.
Georgia Tech
Strengths
- Red-zone TD rate allowedDefenseNo. 16Clemson red-zone td rate: No. 135
- GiveawaysOffenseNo. 77Clemson takeaways: No. 38
- Yards per pass attempt allowedDefenseNo. 87Clemson yards per pass attempt: No. 132
Weak spots
- Third-down rateOffenseNo. 137Clemson third-down rate allowed: No. 20
- Red-zone TD rateOffenseNo. 126Clemson red-zone td rate allowed: No. 26
- TakeawaysDefenseNo. 125Clemson giveaways: No. 92
Clemson
Strengths
- Sack rate (defense)DefenseNo. 9Georgia Tech sacks allowed (rate): No. 102
- Third-down rate allowedDefenseNo. 20Georgia Tech third-down rate: No. 137
- Red-zone TD rate allowedDefenseNo. 26Georgia Tech red-zone td rate: No. 126
Weak spots
- Third-down rateOffenseNo. 135Georgia Tech third-down rate allowed: No. 95
- Red-zone TD rateOffenseNo. 135Georgia Tech red-zone td rate allowed: No. 16
- Yards per pass attemptOffenseNo. 132Georgia Tech yards per pass attempt allowed: No. 87
Swing stats
The stats that swing close games: turnovers, third down, the red zone and sacks. Season figures, national rank under each.
| Stat | Georgia Tech | Clemson |
|---|---|---|
| Turnover margin (season) | −57 forced, 12 lost | 013 forced, 13 lost |
| Third-down rate | 29.6%No. 137 | 29.9%No. 135 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 40.7%No. 95 | 31.7%No. 20 |
| Red-zone TD rate | 44.1%No. 126 | 37.9%No. 135 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 44.2%No. 16 | 47.8%No. 26 |
| Sacks allowed (rate) | 6.9%No. 102 | 8.8%No. 129 |
| Sack rate (defense) | 4.0%No. 112 | 8.5%No. 9 |
The line
Shown for information. The betting line is not an input to the machine, and nothing here is picks or advice. 4 pulls this week, Nov 9 to Nov 13.
- Clemson by 13.5 on Nov 9, Clemson by 14.5 now (Nov 13).
- It has moved 1 point toward Clemson.
- Step by step: Clemson by 13.5 → Clemson by 14 → Clemson by 14.5.
- For comparison, the machine's margin is Clemson by 13.3; the betting line is Clemson by 14.5.
Game-day notes
Information only. The weather is not in the machine's number; a confirmed starting-quarterback absence already is.
- Kickoff forecast (as of Nov 13): 50°F, wind 3 mph, no rain or snow.
The machine's number counts one kind of news: a confirmed absence of a starting quarterback. It does not use other injuries, weather or news, and knows nothing about suspensions or depth charts. Any weather or quarterback notes on this page are information, not inputs.
Pre-game numbers, saved Nov 13, 12:52 AM ET: the machine's chance and margin as frozen Nov 12, 5:16 PM ET; ratings, ranks and records after Week 10; season stats as of Nov 11, 12:11 PM ET. They are never recomputed after kickoff; the final score is added once the game is played. Edge = the better side by at least 30 places in the national ranks; anything closer is even.
Georgia Tech team page · Clemson team page · All of this week's games