Week 11 · Friday, Nov 13 · 9:00 PM ET · Rose Bowl
Illinois at UCLA
The machine favors UCLA by 3.9 (the machine's margin) and gives it 61% to win.
After Week 10 the machine rates UCLA No. 40 and Illinois No. 42, 1.4 points apart; UCLA is at home. The widest gap on the field: UCLA's yards per play ranks No. 23 and Illinois's defense against it ranks No. 92, an edge to UCLA's offense.
When Illinois has the ball
Illinois's offense against UCLA's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | Illinois offense | UCLA defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 28.4No. 68 | 14.1No. 8 | UCLA defense |
| Yards per play | 6.3No. 37 | 4.3No. 6 | UCLA defense |
| Yards per carry | 5.0No. 30 | 2.7No. 8 | Even |
| Yards per pass attempt | 7.6No. 63 | 5.8No. 9 | UCLA defense |
| Explosive pass rate | 11.3%No. 48 | 10.6%No. 97 | ILL offense |
When UCLA has the ball
UCLA's offense against Illinois's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | UCLA offense | Illinois defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 33.6No. 32 | 23.0No. 54 | Even |
| Yards per play | 6.6No. 23 | 5.8No. 92 | UCLA offense |
| Yards per carry | 5.3No. 22 | 4.0No. 65 | UCLA offense |
| Yards per pass attempt | 8.4No. 27 | 7.5No. 94 | UCLA offense |
| Explosive pass rate | 14.8%No. 12 | 8.6%No. 38 | Even |
Strengths and weak spots
Each team's three best and three worst national ranks on a fixed list of 18 headline stats, each set against the other team's rank on the matching stat.
Illinois
Strengths
- GiveawaysOffenseNo. 11UCLA takeaways: No. 1
- Sacks allowed (rate)OffenseNo. 22UCLA sack rate (defense): No. 88
- Third-down rateOffenseNo. 26UCLA third-down rate allowed: No. 2
Weak spots
- Sack rate (defense)DefenseNo. 135UCLA sacks allowed (rate): No. 41
- TakeawaysDefenseNo. 133UCLA giveaways: No. 105
- Third-down rate allowedDefenseNo. 108UCLA third-down rate: No. 25
UCLA
Strengths
- TakeawaysDefenseNo. 1Illinois giveaways: No. 11
- Third-down rate allowedDefenseNo. 2Illinois third-down rate: No. 26
- Yards per play allowedDefenseNo. 6Illinois yards per play: No. 37
Weak spots
- GiveawaysOffenseNo. 105Illinois takeaways: No. 133
- Explosive passes allowedDefenseNo. 97Illinois explosive pass rate: No. 48
- Red-zone TD rateOffenseNo. 92Illinois red-zone td rate allowed: No. 85
Swing stats
The stats that swing close games: turnovers, third down, the red zone and sacks. Season figures, national rank under each.
| Stat | Illinois | UCLA |
|---|---|---|
| Turnover margin (season) | 06 forced, 6 lost | +1427 forced, 13 lost |
| Third-down rate | 45.9%No. 26 | 46.0%No. 25 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 42.0%No. 108 | 26.4%No. 2 |
| Red-zone TD rate | 65.4%No. 46 | 57.5%No. 92 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 62.1%No. 85 | 54.5%No. 47 |
| Sacks allowed (rate) | 3.4%No. 22 | 4.1%No. 41 |
| Sack rate (defense) | 2.3%No. 135 | 5.3%No. 88 |
The line
Shown for information. The betting line is not an input to the machine, and nothing here is picks or advice. 3 pulls this week, Nov 9 to Nov 13.
- UCLA by 10 on Nov 9, UCLA by 10.5 at the last pull before kickoff (Nov 13).
- It moved 0.5 points toward UCLA.
- A look-ahead line on Nov 6, before this game week, had UCLA by 11.5. It is not counted in the move.
- For comparison, the machine's margin is UCLA by 3.9; the betting line closed at UCLA by 10.5.
Game-day notes
Information only. The weather is not in the machine's number; a confirmed starting-quarterback absence already is.
- Kickoff forecast (as of Nov 13): 59°F, wind 3 mph, no rain or snow.
- Starting quarterback (as of Nov 13): N. Iamaleava, UCLA's starting quarterback, has been out since Oct 29. The machine's number already counts it.
The machine's number counts one kind of news: a confirmed absence of a starting quarterback. It does not use other injuries, weather or news, and knows nothing about suspensions or depth charts. Any weather or quarterback notes on this page are information, not inputs.
Pre-game numbers, saved Nov 13, 12:52 AM ET: the machine's chance and margin as frozen Nov 12, 5:16 PM ET; ratings, ranks and records after Week 10; season stats as of Nov 11, 12:11 PM ET. They are never recomputed after kickoff; the final score is added once the game is played. Edge = the better side by at least 30 places in the national ranks; anything closer is even.
Illinois team page · UCLA team page · All of this week's games