Week 11 · Saturday, Nov 14 · 7:00 PM ET · Kenan Stadium
Louisville at North Carolina
The machine favors North Carolina by 0.9 (the machine's margin) and gives it 53% to win.
After Week 10 the machine rates Louisville No. 27 and North Carolina No. 30, 1.6 points apart; North Carolina is at home. The widest gap on the field: Louisville's yards per carry ranks No. 1 and North Carolina's defense against it ranks No. 70, an edge to Louisville's offense.
When Louisville has the ball
Louisville's offense against North Carolina's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | Louisville offense | North Carolina defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 40.8No. 6 | 22.8No. 50 | LOU offense |
| Yards per play | 7.9No. 1 | 5.3No. 47 | LOU offense |
| Yards per carry | 6.3No. 1 | 4.0No. 70 | LOU offense |
| Yards per pass attempt | 9.7No. 5 | 6.7No. 44 | LOU offense |
| Explosive pass rate | 15.0%No. 9 | 8.3%No. 33 | Even |
When North Carolina has the ball
North Carolina's offense against Louisville's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | North Carolina offense | Louisville defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 27.1No. 76 | 25.9No. 79 | Even |
| Yards per play | 5.8No. 76 | 5.5No. 64 | Even |
| Yards per carry | 3.8No. 108 | 3.7No. 45 | LOU defense |
| Yards per pass attempt | 7.7No. 61 | 7.2No. 71 | Even |
| Explosive pass rate | 9.8%No. 85 | 9.1%No. 53 | LOU defense |
Strengths and weak spots
Each team's three best and three worst national ranks on a fixed list of 18 headline stats, each set against the other team's rank on the matching stat.
Louisville
Strengths
- Yards per carryOffenseNo. 1North Carolina yards per carry allowed: No. 70
- Yards per playOffenseNo. 1North Carolina yards per play allowed: No. 47
- Yards per pass attemptOffenseNo. 5North Carolina yards per pass attempt allowed: No. 44
Weak spots
- Points allowed per gameDefenseNo. 79North Carolina points per game: No. 76
- Yards per pass attempt allowedDefenseNo. 71North Carolina yards per pass attempt: No. 61
- Yards per play allowedDefenseNo. 64North Carolina yards per play: No. 76
North Carolina
Strengths
- Third-down rateOffenseNo. 27Louisville third-down rate allowed: No. 16
- Red-zone TD rateOffenseNo. 30Louisville red-zone td rate allowed: No. 18
- Explosive passes allowedDefenseNo. 33Louisville explosive pass rate: No. 9
Weak spots
- Third-down rate allowedDefenseNo. 121Louisville third-down rate: No. 32
- Yards per carryOffenseNo. 108Louisville yards per carry allowed: No. 45
- Sack rate (defense)DefenseNo. 92Louisville sacks allowed (rate): No. 60
Swing stats
The stats that swing close games: turnovers, third down, the red zone and sacks. Season figures, national rank under each.
| Stat | Louisville | North Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| Turnover margin (season) | +715 forced, 8 lost | −111 forced, 12 lost |
| Third-down rate | 44.4%No. 32 | 45.9%No. 27 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 31.1%No. 16 | 44.1%No. 121 |
| Red-zone TD rate | 69.4%No. 31 | 69.7%No. 30 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 45.2%No. 18 | 56.7%No. 53 |
| Sacks allowed (rate) | 5.1%No. 60 | 6.1%No. 88 |
| Sack rate (defense) | 6.2%No. 54 | 5.2%No. 92 |
The line
Shown for information. The betting line is not an input to the machine, and nothing here is picks or advice. 6 pulls this week, Nov 9 to Nov 13.
- Louisville by 3 on Nov 9, Louisville by 3.5 now (Nov 13).
- It has moved 0.5 points toward Louisville.
- A look-ahead line on Nov 5, before this game week, had Louisville by 2.5. It is not counted in the move.
- For comparison, the machine's margin is North Carolina by 0.9; the betting line is Louisville by 3.5.
Game-day notes
Information only. The weather is not in the machine's number; a confirmed starting-quarterback absence already is.
- Kickoff forecast (as of Nov 13): 43°F, wind 10 mph, no rain or snow.
The machine's number counts one kind of news: a confirmed absence of a starting quarterback. It does not use other injuries, weather or news, and knows nothing about suspensions or depth charts. Any weather or quarterback notes on this page are information, not inputs.
Pre-game numbers, saved Nov 13, 12:52 AM ET: the machine's chance and margin as frozen Nov 12, 5:16 PM ET; ratings, ranks and records after Week 10; season stats as of Nov 11, 12:11 PM ET. They are never recomputed after kickoff; the final score is added once the game is played. Edge = the better side by at least 30 places in the national ranks; anything closer is even.
Louisville team page · North Carolina team page · All of this week's games