Week 11 · Saturday, Nov 14 · 3:00 PM ET · Plaster Sports Complex
New Mexico State at Missouri State
The machine favors Missouri State by 1.1 (the machine's margin) and gives it 54% to win.
After Week 10 the machine rates New Mexico State No. 121 and Missouri State No. 125, 1.4 points apart; Missouri State is at home. The widest gap on the field: Missouri State's yards per carry ranks No. 107 and New Mexico State's defense against it ranks No. 50, an edge to New Mexico State's defense.
When New Mexico State has the ball
New Mexico State's offense against Missouri State's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | New Mexico State offense | Missouri State defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 20.7No. 117 | 30.0No. 112 | Even |
| Yards per play | 5.6No. 94 | 6.1No. 115 | Even |
| Yards per carry | 4.5No. 58 | 4.6No. 98 | NMSU offense |
| Yards per pass attempt | 6.6No. 109 | 7.8No. 111 | Even |
| Explosive pass rate | 10.2%No. 74 | 11.6%No. 115 | NMSU offense |
When Missouri State has the ball
Missouri State's offense against New Mexico State's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | Missouri State offense | New Mexico State defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 23.9No. 99 | 25.8No. 77 | Even |
| Yards per play | 5.7No. 86 | 5.4No. 51 | NMSU defense |
| Yards per carry | 3.8No. 107 | 3.8No. 50 | NMSU defense |
| Yards per pass attempt | 7.7No. 60 | 7.3No. 82 | Even |
| Explosive pass rate | 12.2%No. 33 | 9.9%No. 73 | MOST offense |
Strengths and weak spots
Each team's three best and three worst national ranks on a fixed list of 18 headline stats, each set against the other team's rank on the matching stat.
New Mexico State
Strengths
- Sacks allowed (rate)OffenseNo. 34Missouri State sack rate (defense): No. 86
- Sack rate (defense)DefenseNo. 43Missouri State sacks allowed (rate): No. 72
- Yards per carry allowedDefenseNo. 50Missouri State yards per carry: No. 107
Weak spots
- GiveawaysOffenseNo. 133Missouri State takeaways: No. 83
- Points per gameOffenseNo. 117Missouri State points allowed per game: No. 112
- Yards per pass attemptOffenseNo. 109Missouri State yards per pass attempt allowed: No. 111
Missouri State
Strengths
- Explosive pass rateOffenseNo. 33New Mexico State explosive passes allowed: No. 73
- Yards per pass attemptOffenseNo. 60New Mexico State yards per pass attempt allowed: No. 82
- Red-zone TD rate allowedDefenseNo. 65New Mexico State red-zone td rate: No. 103
Weak spots
- Red-zone TD rateOffenseNo. 117New Mexico State red-zone td rate allowed: No. 62
- Yards per play allowedDefenseNo. 115New Mexico State yards per play: No. 94
- Explosive passes allowedDefenseNo. 115New Mexico State explosive pass rate: No. 74
Swing stats
The stats that swing close games: turnovers, third down, the red zone and sacks. Season figures, national rank under each.
| Stat | New Mexico State | Missouri State |
|---|---|---|
| Turnover margin (season) | −710 forced, 17 lost | −110 forced, 11 lost |
| Third-down rate | 40.9%No. 59 | 36.6%No. 100 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 41.1%No. 100 | 42.1%No. 109 |
| Red-zone TD rate | 54.5%No. 103 | 48.4%No. 117 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 57.9%No. 62 | 58.1%No. 65 |
| Sacks allowed (rate) | 3.9%No. 34 | 5.6%No. 72 |
| Sack rate (defense) | 6.7%No. 43 | 5.3%No. 86 |
The line
Shown for information. The betting line is not an input to the machine, and nothing here is picks or advice. 3 pulls this week, Nov 9 to Nov 12.
- Missouri State by 1.5 on Nov 9, Missouri State by 1.5 now (Nov 12).
- It has not moved this week.
- For comparison, the machine's margin is Missouri State by 1.1; the betting line is Missouri State by 1.5.
Game-day notes
Information only. The weather is not in the machine's number; a confirmed starting-quarterback absence already is.
- Kickoff forecast (as of Nov 13): 49°F, wind 6 mph, no rain or snow.
The machine's number counts one kind of news: a confirmed absence of a starting quarterback. It does not use other injuries, weather or news, and knows nothing about suspensions or depth charts. Any weather or quarterback notes on this page are information, not inputs.
Colours: Missouri State in its second colour on the dark page; New Mexico State in its second colour on the light page, because the two teams' colours are too alike there, so the two sides are easy to tell apart. Pre-game numbers, saved Nov 13, 12:52 AM ET: the machine's chance and margin as frozen Nov 12, 5:16 PM ET; ratings, ranks and records after Week 10; season stats as of Nov 11, 12:11 PM ET. They are never recomputed after kickoff; the final score is added once the game is played. Edge = the better side by at least 30 places in the national ranks; anything closer is even.
New Mexico State team page · Missouri State team page · All of this week's games