Week 11 · Saturday, Nov 14 · 11:00 PM ET · Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex
North Dakota State at Hawai'i
The machine favors North Dakota State by 7.0 (the machine's margin) and gives it 67% to win.
After Week 10 the machine rates North Dakota State No. 69 and Hawai'i No. 104, 9.6 points apart; Hawai'i is at home. The widest gap on the field: Hawai'i's points per game ranks No. 118 and North Dakota State's defense against it ranks No. 2, an edge to North Dakota State's defense.
When North Dakota State has the ball
North Dakota State's offense against Hawai'i's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | North Dakota State offense | Hawai'i defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 28.1No. 71 | 23.3No. 57 | Even |
| Yards per play | 5.4No. 105 | 6.1No. 112 | Even |
| Yards per carry | 4.0No. 94 | 4.9No. 115 | Even |
| Yards per pass attempt | 7.4No. 72 | 7.5No. 93 | Even |
| Explosive pass rate | 12.7%No. 25 | 10.2%No. 86 | NDSU offense |
When Hawai'i has the ball
Hawai'i's offense against North Dakota State's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | Hawai'i offense | North Dakota State defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 20.3No. 118 | 11.9No. 2 | NDSU defense |
| Yards per play | 5.2No. 116 | 4.4No. 10 | NDSU defense |
| Yards per carry | 3.2No. 131 | 3.6No. 37 | NDSU defense |
| Yards per pass attempt | 6.4No. 117 | 5.5No. 2 | NDSU defense |
| Explosive pass rate | 8.6%No. 110 | 9.2%No. 56 | NDSU defense |
Strengths and weak spots
Each team's three best and three worst national ranks on a fixed list of 18 headline stats, each set against the other team's rank on the matching stat.
North Dakota State
Strengths
- Points allowed per gameDefenseNo. 2Hawai'i points per game: No. 118
- Yards per pass attempt allowedDefenseNo. 2Hawai'i yards per pass attempt: No. 117
- TakeawaysDefenseNo. 8Hawai'i giveaways: No. 63
Weak spots
- Yards per playOffenseNo. 105Hawai'i yards per play allowed: No. 112
- Yards per carryOffenseNo. 94Hawai'i yards per carry allowed: No. 115
- Third-down rateOffenseNo. 76Hawai'i third-down rate allowed: No. 52
Hawai'i
Strengths
- Third-down rate allowedDefenseNo. 52North Dakota State third-down rate: No. 76
- TakeawaysDefenseNo. 52North Dakota State giveaways: No. 42
- Sacks allowed (rate)OffenseNo. 56North Dakota State sack rate (defense): No. 26
Weak spots
- Yards per carryOffenseNo. 131North Dakota State yards per carry allowed: No. 37
- Red-zone TD rateOffenseNo. 127North Dakota State red-zone td rate allowed: No. 15
- Red-zone TD rate allowedDefenseNo. 125North Dakota State red-zone td rate: No. 73
Swing stats
The stats that swing close games: turnovers, third down, the red zone and sacks. Season figures, national rank under each.
| Stat | North Dakota State | Hawai'i |
|---|---|---|
| Turnover margin (season) | +918 forced, 9 lost | +112 forced, 11 lost |
| Third-down rate | 39.7%No. 76 | 40.6%No. 62 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 34.7%No. 37 | 36.1%No. 52 |
| Red-zone TD rate | 60.7%No. 73 | 44.1%No. 127 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 43.8%No. 15 | 72.0%No. 125 |
| Sacks allowed (rate) | 4.1%No. 39 | 4.9%No. 56 |
| Sack rate (defense) | 7.4%No. 26 | 4.3%No. 106 |
The line
Shown for information. The betting line is not an input to the machine, and nothing here is picks or advice. 3 pulls this week, Nov 9 to Nov 13.
- North Dakota State by 6.5 on Nov 9, North Dakota State by 7 now (Nov 13).
- It has moved 0.5 points toward North Dakota State.
- For comparison, the machine's margin is North Dakota State by 7.0; the betting line is North Dakota State by 7.
Game-day notes
Information only. The weather is not in the machine's number; a confirmed starting-quarterback absence already is.
- Kickoff forecast (as of Nov 13): 75°F, wind 14 mph, rain.
The machine's number counts one kind of news: a confirmed absence of a starting quarterback. It does not use other injuries, weather or news, and knows nothing about suspensions or depth charts. Any weather or quarterback notes on this page are information, not inputs.
Colours: North Dakota State in its second colour on both pages, because the two teams' colours are too alike there, so the two sides are easy to tell apart. Pre-game numbers, saved Nov 13, 12:52 AM ET: the machine's chance and margin as frozen Nov 12, 5:16 PM ET; ratings, ranks and records after Week 10; season stats as of Nov 11, 12:11 PM ET. They are never recomputed after kickoff; the final score is added once the game is played. Edge = the better side by at least 30 places in the national ranks; anything closer is even.
North Dakota State team page · Hawai'i team page · All of this week's games