Week 11 · Saturday, Nov 14 · 4:15 PM ET · Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK)
Ole Miss at Oklahoma
The machine favors Ole Miss by 2.6 (the machine's margin) and gives it 56% to win.
After Week 10 the machine rates Ole Miss No. 8 and Oklahoma No. 16, 5.1 points apart; Oklahoma is at home. The widest gap on the field: Ole Miss's explosive pass rate ranks No. 113 and Oklahoma's defense against it ranks No. 39, an edge to Oklahoma's defense.
When Ole Miss has the ball
Ole Miss's offense against Oklahoma's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | Ole Miss offense | Oklahoma defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 33.8No. 30 | 19.2No. 26 | Even |
| Yards per play | 5.9No. 65 | 5.1No. 35 | OU defense |
| Yards per carry | 4.4No. 66 | 3.6No. 38 | Even |
| Yards per pass attempt | 7.1No. 89 | 7.0No. 64 | Even |
| Explosive pass rate | 8.5%No. 113 | 8.6%No. 39 | OU defense |
When Oklahoma has the ball
Oklahoma's offense against Ole Miss's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | Oklahoma offense | Ole Miss defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 22.1No. 108 | 26.0No. 81 | Even |
| Yards per play | 5.2No. 117 | 5.8No. 89 | Even |
| Yards per carry | 3.2No. 132 | 4.3No. 89 | MISS defense |
| Yards per pass attempt | 7.2No. 82 | 7.5No. 95 | Even |
| Explosive pass rate | 10.0%No. 80 | 12.0%No. 119 | OU offense |
Strengths and weak spots
Each team's three best and three worst national ranks on a fixed list of 18 headline stats, each set against the other team's rank on the matching stat.
Ole Miss
Strengths
- Red-zone TD rateOffenseNo. 7Oklahoma red-zone td rate allowed: No. 55
- Sacks allowed (rate)OffenseNo. 13Oklahoma sack rate (defense): No. 3
- Third-down rateOffenseNo. 17Oklahoma third-down rate allowed: No. 4
Weak spots
- Third-down rate allowedDefenseNo. 120Oklahoma third-down rate: No. 80
- Explosive passes allowedDefenseNo. 119Oklahoma explosive pass rate: No. 80
- Explosive pass rateOffenseNo. 113Oklahoma explosive passes allowed: No. 39
Oklahoma
Strengths
- Sack rate (defense)DefenseNo. 3Ole Miss sacks allowed (rate): No. 13
- Third-down rate allowedDefenseNo. 4Ole Miss third-down rate: No. 17
- Points allowed per gameDefenseNo. 26Ole Miss points per game: No. 30
Weak spots
- Yards per carryOffenseNo. 132Ole Miss yards per carry allowed: No. 89
- Red-zone TD rateOffenseNo. 131Ole Miss red-zone td rate allowed: No. 31
- GiveawaysOffenseNo. 121Ole Miss takeaways: No. 56
Swing stats
The stats that swing close games: turnovers, third down, the red zone and sacks. Season figures, national rank under each.
| Stat | Ole Miss | Oklahoma |
|---|---|---|
| Turnover margin (season) | −212 forced, 14 lost | −213 forced, 15 lost |
| Third-down rate | 48.8%No. 17 | 39.1%No. 80 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 43.8%No. 120 | 27.7%No. 4 |
| Red-zone TD rate | 78.1%No. 7 | 42.9%No. 131 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 48.6%No. 31 | 57.1%No. 55 |
| Sacks allowed (rate) | 2.5%No. 13 | 6.3%No. 93 |
| Sack rate (defense) | 5.5%No. 80 | 11.0%No. 3 |
The line
Shown for information. The betting line is not an input to the machine, and nothing here is picks or advice. 4 pulls this week, Nov 9 to Nov 13.
- Ole Miss by 1.5 on Nov 9, Oklahoma by 2.5 now (Nov 13).
- It has moved 4 points toward Oklahoma.
- Step by step: Ole Miss by 1.5 → Oklahoma by 1.5 → Oklahoma by 2.5.
- A look-ahead line on Aug 29, before this game week, had Oklahoma by 4. It is not counted in the move.
- For comparison, the machine's margin is Ole Miss by 2.6; the betting line is Oklahoma by 2.5.
Game-day notes
Information only. The weather is not in the machine's number; a confirmed starting-quarterback absence already is.
- Kickoff forecast (as of Nov 13): 56°F, wind 12 mph, no rain or snow.
The machine's number counts one kind of news: a confirmed absence of a starting quarterback. It does not use other injuries, weather or news, and knows nothing about suspensions or depth charts. Any weather or quarterback notes on this page are information, not inputs.
Pre-game numbers, saved Nov 13, 12:52 AM ET: the machine's chance and margin as frozen Nov 12, 5:16 PM ET; ratings, ranks and records after Week 10; season stats as of Nov 11, 12:11 PM ET. They are never recomputed after kickoff; the final score is added once the game is played. Edge = the better side by at least 30 places in the national ranks; anything closer is even.
Ole Miss team page · Oklahoma team page · All of this week's games