Week 11 · Saturday, Nov 14 · 6:00 PM ET · Albertsons Stadium
Oregon State at Boise State
The machine favors Boise State by 13.9 (the machine's margin) and gives it 81% to win.
After Week 10 the machine rates Boise State No. 34 and Oregon State No. 70, 11.4 points apart; Boise State is at home. The widest gap on the field: Oregon State's yards per play ranks No. 21 and Boise State's defense against it ranks No. 125, an edge to Oregon State's offense.
When Oregon State has the ball
Oregon State's offense against Boise State's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | Oregon State offense | Boise State defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 38.0No. 12 | 25.2No. 71 | ORST offense |
| Yards per play | 6.6No. 21 | 6.4No. 125 | ORST offense |
| Yards per carry | 4.4No. 67 | 4.3No. 84 | Even |
| Yards per pass attempt | 8.6No. 20 | 8.1No. 123 | ORST offense |
| Explosive pass rate | 12.1%No. 36 | 11.1%No. 104 | ORST offense |
When Boise State has the ball
Boise State's offense against Oregon State's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | Boise State offense | Oregon State defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 39.0No. 10 | 26.9No. 90 | BOIS offense |
| Yards per play | 6.7No. 16 | 5.6No. 76 | BOIS offense |
| Yards per carry | 5.6No. 6 | 4.7No. 105 | BOIS offense |
| Yards per pass attempt | 8.4No. 24 | 6.8No. 52 | Even |
| Explosive pass rate | 11.5%No. 44 | 7.9%No. 27 | Even |
Strengths and weak spots
Each team's three best and three worst national ranks on a fixed list of 18 headline stats, each set against the other team's rank on the matching stat.
Oregon State
Strengths
- Points per gameOffenseNo. 12Boise State points allowed per game: No. 71
- Sacks allowed (rate)OffenseNo. 18Boise State sack rate (defense): No. 50
- Yards per pass attemptOffenseNo. 20Boise State yards per pass attempt allowed: No. 123
Weak spots
- Third-down rate allowedDefenseNo. 112Boise State third-down rate: No. 4
- Yards per carry allowedDefenseNo. 105Boise State yards per carry: No. 6
- Points allowed per gameDefenseNo. 90Boise State points per game: No. 10
Boise State
Strengths
- Third-down rateOffenseNo. 4Oregon State third-down rate allowed: No. 112
- Yards per carryOffenseNo. 6Oregon State yards per carry allowed: No. 105
- GiveawaysOffenseNo. 6Oregon State takeaways: No. 57
Weak spots
- Yards per play allowedDefenseNo. 125Oregon State yards per play: No. 21
- Yards per pass attempt allowedDefenseNo. 123Oregon State yards per pass attempt: No. 20
- TakeawaysDefenseNo. 115Oregon State giveaways: No. 31
Swing stats
The stats that swing close games: turnovers, third down, the red zone and sacks. Season figures, national rank under each.
| Stat | Oregon State | Boise State |
|---|---|---|
| Turnover margin (season) | +412 forced, 8 lost | +38 forced, 5 lost |
| Third-down rate | 44.3%No. 34 | 53.0%No. 4 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 42.5%No. 112 | 30.8%No. 14 |
| Red-zone TD rate | 70.7%No. 25 | 73.0%No. 17 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 57.6%No. 60 | 59.3%No. 74 |
| Sacks allowed (rate) | 3.0%No. 18 | 2.7%No. 15 |
| Sack rate (defense) | 6.2%No. 55 | 6.3%No. 50 |
The line
Shown for information. The betting line is not an input to the machine, and nothing here is picks or advice. 3 pulls this week, Nov 9 to Nov 12.
- Boise State by 10.5 on Nov 9, Boise State by 14.5 now (Nov 12).
- It has moved 4 points toward Boise State.
- Step by step: Boise State by 10.5 → Boise State by 13.5 → Boise State by 14.5.
- A look-ahead line on Nov 5, before this game week, had Boise State by 4.5. It is not counted in the move.
- For comparison, the machine's margin is Boise State by 13.9; the betting line is Boise State by 14.5.
Game-day notes
Information only. The weather is not in the machine's number; a confirmed starting-quarterback absence already is.
- Kickoff forecast (as of Nov 13): 51°F, wind 4 mph, no rain or snow.
The machine's number counts one kind of news: a confirmed absence of a starting quarterback. It does not use other injuries, weather or news, and knows nothing about suspensions or depth charts. Any weather or quarterback notes on this page are information, not inputs.
Colours: Oregon State in its main colour on the dark page, because the two teams' colours are too alike there, so the two sides are easy to tell apart. Pre-game numbers, saved Nov 13, 12:52 AM ET: the machine's chance and margin as frozen Nov 12, 5:16 PM ET; ratings, ranks and records after Week 10; season stats as of Nov 11, 12:11 PM ET. They are never recomputed after kickoff; the final score is added once the game is played. Edge = the better side by at least 30 places in the national ranks; anything closer is even.
Oregon State team page · Boise State team page · All of this week's games