Week 11 · Wednesday, Nov 11 · 7:30 PM ET · Kelly/Shorts Stadium
Sacramento State at Central Michigan
Final: Sacramento State 7, Central Michigan 28.
No pre-game number from the machine for this game: it kicked off before the machine's numbers for the week were frozen.
After Week 10 the machine rates Central Michigan No. 117 and Sacramento State No. 138, 13.4 points apart; Central Michigan is at home. The widest gap on the field: Sacramento State's yards per pass attempt ranks No. 135 and Central Michigan's defense against it ranks No. 36, an edge to Central Michigan's defense.
When Sacramento State has the ball
Sacramento State's offense against Central Michigan's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | Sacramento State offense | Central Michigan defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 17.0No. 133 | 23.8No. 62 | CMU defense |
| Yards per play | 4.5No. 137 | 5.5No. 70 | CMU defense |
| Yards per carry | 3.1No. 134 | 4.6No. 95 | CMU defense |
| Yards per pass attempt | 5.8No. 135 | 6.6No. 36 | CMU defense |
| Explosive pass rate | 4.8%No. 137 | 11.3%No. 107 | CMU defense |
When Central Michigan has the ball
Central Michigan's offense against Sacramento State's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | Central Michigan offense | Sacramento State defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 19.8No. 123 | 29.3No. 108 | Even |
| Yards per play | 5.0No. 126 | 5.8No. 93 | SAC defense |
| Yards per carry | 4.5No. 53 | 4.7No. 107 | CMU offense |
| Yards per pass attempt | 6.0No. 131 | 7.5No. 97 | SAC defense |
| Explosive pass rate | 6.6%No. 132 | 10.4%No. 93 | SAC defense |
Strengths and weak spots
Each team's three best and three worst national ranks on a fixed list of 18 headline stats, each set against the other team's rank on the matching stat.
Sacramento State
Strengths
- TakeawaysDefenseNo. 71Central Michigan giveaways: No. 61
- Sacks allowed (rate)OffenseNo. 74Central Michigan sack rate (defense): No. 61
- Third-down rate allowedDefenseNo. 81Central Michigan third-down rate: No. 95
Weak spots
- Yards per playOffenseNo. 137Central Michigan yards per play allowed: No. 70
- Red-zone TD rateOffenseNo. 137Central Michigan red-zone td rate allowed: No. 111
- Explosive pass rateOffenseNo. 137Central Michigan explosive passes allowed: No. 107
Central Michigan
Strengths
- TakeawaysDefenseNo. 20Sacramento State giveaways: No. 128
- Yards per pass attempt allowedDefenseNo. 36Sacramento State yards per pass attempt: No. 135
- Red-zone TD rateOffenseNo. 38Sacramento State red-zone td rate allowed: No. 100
Weak spots
- Explosive pass rateOffenseNo. 132Sacramento State explosive passes allowed: No. 93
- Yards per pass attemptOffenseNo. 131Sacramento State yards per pass attempt allowed: No. 97
- Third-down rate allowedDefenseNo. 129Sacramento State third-down rate: No. 125
Swing stats
The stats that swing close games: turnovers, third down, the red zone and sacks. Season figures, national rank under each.
| Stat | Sacramento State | Central Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| Turnover margin (season) | −511 forced, 16 lost | +415 forced, 11 lost |
| Third-down rate | 32.4%No. 125 | 37.2%No. 95 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 39.2%No. 81 | 47.3%No. 129 |
| Red-zone TD rate | 34.8%No. 137 | 66.7%No. 38 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 64.7%No. 100 | 67.7%No. 111 |
| Sacks allowed (rate) | 5.7%No. 74 | 7.5%No. 111 |
| Sack rate (defense) | 4.2%No. 111 | 6.0%No. 61 |
The line
Shown for information. The betting line is not an input to the machine, and nothing here is picks or advice. 3 pulls this week, Nov 9 to Nov 11.
- Central Michigan by 17.5 on Nov 9, Central Michigan by 17.5 at the last pull before kickoff (Nov 11).
- It ended that week where it started, after moving in between.
- Step by step: Central Michigan by 17.5 → Central Michigan by 18.5 → Central Michigan by 17.5.
Game-day notes
Information only. The weather is not in the machine's number; a confirmed starting-quarterback absence already is.
- Weather at kickoff (as of Nov 13): 46°F, wind 2 mph, no rain or snow.
The machine's number counts one kind of news: a confirmed absence of a starting quarterback. It does not use other injuries, weather or news, and knows nothing about suspensions or depth charts. Any weather or quarterback notes on this page are information, not inputs.
Colours: Sacramento State in its main colour on the dark page, because the two teams' colours are too alike there, so the two sides are easy to tell apart. Pre-game numbers, saved Nov 13, 12:52 AM ET: ratings, ranks and records after Week 10; season stats as of Nov 11, 12:11 PM ET. They are never recomputed after kickoff; the final score is added once the game is played. Edge = the better side by at least 30 places in the national ranks; anything closer is even.
Sacramento State team page · Central Michigan team page · All of this week's games