Week 11 · Saturday, Nov 14 · 7:30 PM ET · Lane Stadium
Stanford at Virginia Tech
The machine favors Virginia Tech by 18.0 (the machine's margin) and gives it 87% to win.
After Week 10 the machine rates Virginia Tech No. 49 and Stanford No. 111, 15.5 points apart; Virginia Tech is at home. The widest gap on the field: Virginia Tech's points per game ranks No. 28 and Stanford's defense against it ranks No. 136, an edge to Virginia Tech's offense.
When Stanford has the ball
Stanford's offense against Virginia Tech's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | Stanford offense | Virginia Tech defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 20.3No. 119 | 23.9No. 64 | VT defense |
| Yards per play | 5.5No. 97 | 5.6No. 78 | Even |
| Yards per carry | 3.7No. 115 | 3.4No. 29 | VT defense |
| Yards per pass attempt | 7.0No. 97 | 7.6No. 103 | Even |
| Explosive pass rate | 8.8%No. 107 | 9.7%No. 65 | VT defense |
When Virginia Tech has the ball
Virginia Tech's offense against Stanford's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | Virginia Tech offense | Stanford defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 34.2No. 28 | 37.3No. 136 | VT offense |
| Yards per play | 6.0No. 51 | 6.7No. 132 | VT offense |
| Yards per carry | 3.8No. 110 | 5.7No. 135 | Even |
| Yards per pass attempt | 8.1No. 38 | 7.8No. 113 | VT offense |
| Explosive pass rate | 10.9%No. 59 | 9.7%No. 63 | Even |
Strengths and weak spots
Each team's three best and three worst national ranks on a fixed list of 18 headline stats, each set against the other team's rank on the matching stat.
Stanford
Strengths
- Sacks allowed (rate)OffenseNo. 27Virginia Tech sack rate (defense): No. 19
- GiveawaysOffenseNo. 32Virginia Tech takeaways: No. 129
- Explosive passes allowedDefenseNo. 63Virginia Tech explosive pass rate: No. 59
Weak spots
- Sack rate (defense)DefenseNo. 137Virginia Tech sacks allowed (rate): No. 108
- Red-zone TD rate allowedDefenseNo. 136Virginia Tech red-zone td rate: No. 109
- Points allowed per gameDefenseNo. 136Virginia Tech points per game: No. 28
Virginia Tech
Strengths
- Sack rate (defense)DefenseNo. 19Stanford sacks allowed (rate): No. 27
- Points per gameOffenseNo. 28Stanford points allowed per game: No. 136
- Yards per carry allowedDefenseNo. 29Stanford yards per carry: No. 115
Weak spots
- TakeawaysDefenseNo. 129Stanford giveaways: No. 32
- Red-zone TD rate allowedDefenseNo. 113Stanford red-zone td rate: No. 71
- Yards per carryOffenseNo. 110Stanford yards per carry allowed: No. 135
Swing stats
The stats that swing close games: turnovers, third down, the red zone and sacks. Season figures, national rank under each.
| Stat | Stanford | Virginia Tech |
|---|---|---|
| Turnover margin (season) | 08 forced, 8 lost | −57 forced, 12 lost |
| Third-down rate | 31.2%No. 131 | 41.7%No. 52 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 49.6%No. 134 | 34.7%No. 38 |
| Red-zone TD rate | 60.9%No. 71 | 52.8%No. 109 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 80.6%No. 136 | 67.9%No. 113 |
| Sacks allowed (rate) | 3.6%No. 27 | 7.1%No. 108 |
| Sack rate (defense) | 2.3%No. 137 | 7.6%No. 19 |
The line
Shown for information. The betting line is not an input to the machine, and nothing here is picks or advice. 4 pulls this week, Nov 9 to Nov 13.
- Virginia Tech by 15.5 on Nov 9, Virginia Tech by 15.5 now (Nov 13).
- It has not moved this week.
- For comparison, the machine's margin is Virginia Tech by 18.0; the betting line is Virginia Tech by 15.5.
Game-day notes
Information only. The weather is not in the machine's number; a confirmed starting-quarterback absence already is.
- Kickoff forecast (as of Nov 13): 34°F, wind 10 mph, no rain or snow.
The machine's number counts one kind of news: a confirmed absence of a starting quarterback. It does not use other injuries, weather or news, and knows nothing about suspensions or depth charts. Any weather or quarterback notes on this page are information, not inputs.
Colours: Virginia Tech in its second colour on the light page, because the two teams' colours are too alike there, so the two sides are easy to tell apart. Pre-game numbers, saved Nov 13, 12:52 AM ET: the machine's chance and margin as frozen Nov 12, 5:16 PM ET; ratings, ranks and records after Week 10; season stats as of Nov 11, 12:11 PM ET. They are never recomputed after kickoff; the final score is added once the game is played. Edge = the better side by at least 30 places in the national ranks; anything closer is even.
Stanford team page · Virginia Tech team page · All of this week's games