Week 11 · Saturday, Nov 14 · 3:00 PM ET · Kyle Field
Tennessee at Texas A&M
The machine favors Texas A&M by 0.4 (the machine's margin) and gives it 52% to win.
After Week 10 the machine rates Tennessee No. 10 and Texas A&M No. 14, 2.1 points apart; Texas A&M is at home. The widest gap on the field: Texas A&M's explosive pass rate ranks No. 135 and Tennessee's defense against it ranks No. 4, an edge to Tennessee's defense.
When Tennessee has the ball
Tennessee's offense against Texas A&M's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | Tennessee offense | Texas A&M defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 32.4No. 42 | 18.7No. 22 | Even |
| Yards per play | 5.9No. 70 | 5.7No. 79 | Even |
| Yards per carry | 5.0No. 34 | 4.0No. 73 | TENN offense |
| Yards per pass attempt | 7.2No. 84 | 8.0No. 121 | TENN offense |
| Explosive pass rate | 8.8%No. 108 | 14.5%No. 136 | Even |
When Texas A&M has the ball
Texas A&M's offense against Tennessee's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | Texas A&M offense | Tennessee defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 26.1No. 86 | 15.1No. 11 | TENN defense |
| Yards per play | 5.2No. 118 | 4.8No. 18 | TENN defense |
| Yards per carry | 4.2No. 82 | 3.8No. 51 | TENN defense |
| Yards per pass attempt | 6.2No. 126 | 5.8No. 7 | TENN defense |
| Explosive pass rate | 6.3%No. 135 | 5.6%No. 4 | TENN defense |
Strengths and weak spots
Each team's three best and three worst national ranks on a fixed list of 18 headline stats, each set against the other team's rank on the matching stat.
Tennessee
Strengths
- Sack rate (defense)DefenseNo. 1Texas A&M sacks allowed (rate): No. 75
- Explosive passes allowedDefenseNo. 4Texas A&M explosive pass rate: No. 135
- Yards per pass attempt allowedDefenseNo. 7Texas A&M yards per pass attempt: No. 126
Weak spots
- Explosive pass rateOffenseNo. 108Texas A&M explosive passes allowed: No. 136
- Sacks allowed (rate)OffenseNo. 107Texas A&M sack rate (defense): No. 129
- Third-down rateOffenseNo. 91Texas A&M third-down rate allowed: No. 18
Texas A&M
Strengths
- Third-down rate allowedDefenseNo. 18Tennessee third-down rate: No. 91
- Points allowed per gameDefenseNo. 22Tennessee points per game: No. 42
- Third-down rateOffenseNo. 42Tennessee third-down rate allowed: No. 27
Weak spots
- Explosive passes allowedDefenseNo. 136Tennessee explosive pass rate: No. 108
- Explosive pass rateOffenseNo. 135Tennessee explosive passes allowed: No. 4
- Sack rate (defense)DefenseNo. 129Tennessee sacks allowed (rate): No. 107
Swing stats
The stats that swing close games: turnovers, third down, the red zone and sacks. Season figures, national rank under each.
| Stat | Tennessee | Texas A&M |
|---|---|---|
| Turnover margin (season) | +617 forced, 11 lost | +112 forced, 11 lost |
| Third-down rate | 37.5%No. 91 | 42.9%No. 42 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 33.1%No. 27 | 31.5%No. 18 |
| Red-zone TD rate | 72.4%No. 20 | 56.4%No. 97 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 47.8%No. 28 | 63.2%No. 89 |
| Sacks allowed (rate) | 7.1%No. 107 | 5.7%No. 75 |
| Sack rate (defense) | 11.8%No. 1 | 3.1%No. 129 |
The line
Shown for information. The betting line is not an input to the machine, and nothing here is picks or advice. 3 pulls this week, Nov 9 to Nov 13.
- Tennessee by 2.5 on Nov 9, Tennessee by 1.5 now (Nov 13).
- It has moved 1 point toward Texas A&M.
- A look-ahead line on Sep 4, before this game week, had Texas A&M by 8.5. It is not counted in the move.
- For comparison, the machine's margin is Texas A&M by 0.4; the betting line is Tennessee by 1.5.
Game-day notes
Information only. The weather is not in the machine's number; a confirmed starting-quarterback absence already is.
- Kickoff forecast (as of Nov 13): 68°F, wind 10 mph, no rain or snow.
The machine's number counts one kind of news: a confirmed absence of a starting quarterback. It does not use other injuries, weather or news, and knows nothing about suspensions or depth charts. Any weather or quarterback notes on this page are information, not inputs.
Pre-game numbers, saved Nov 13, 12:52 AM ET: the machine's chance and margin as frozen Nov 12, 5:16 PM ET; ratings, ranks and records after Week 10; season stats as of Nov 11, 12:11 PM ET. They are never recomputed after kickoff; the final score is added once the game is played. Edge = the better side by at least 30 places in the national ranks; anything closer is even.
Tennessee team page · Texas A&M team page · All of this week's games