Week 11 · Saturday, Nov 14 · 7:30 PM ET · Tiger Stadium (LA)
Texas at LSU
The machine favors LSU by 2.6 (the machine's margin) and gives it 57% to win.
After Week 10 the machine rates LSU No. 3 and Texas No. 4, 0.1 points apart; LSU is at home. The widest gap on the field: Texas's yards per carry ranks No. 120 and LSU's defense against it ranks No. 7, an edge to LSU's defense.
When Texas has the ball
Texas's offense against LSU's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | Texas offense | LSU defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 31.1No. 48 | 17.7No. 20 | Even |
| Yards per play | 5.6No. 96 | 4.4No. 9 | LSU defense |
| Yards per carry | 3.6No. 120 | 2.7No. 7 | LSU defense |
| Yards per pass attempt | 7.8No. 50 | 6.2No. 22 | Even |
| Explosive pass rate | 9.4%No. 93 | 8.4%No. 36 | LSU defense |
When LSU has the ball
LSU's offense against Texas's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | LSU offense | Texas defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 37.1No. 18 | 17.4No. 19 | Even |
| Yards per play | 6.4No. 31 | 4.2No. 2 | Even |
| Yards per carry | 4.4No. 64 | 2.9No. 12 | TEX defense |
| Yards per pass attempt | 8.4No. 25 | 5.5No. 3 | Even |
| Explosive pass rate | 10.6%No. 68 | 5.0%No. 2 | TEX defense |
Strengths and weak spots
Each team's three best and three worst national ranks on a fixed list of 18 headline stats, each set against the other team's rank on the matching stat.
Texas
Strengths
- Explosive passes allowedDefenseNo. 2LSU explosive pass rate: No. 68
- Yards per play allowedDefenseNo. 2LSU yards per play: No. 31
- Yards per pass attempt allowedDefenseNo. 3LSU yards per pass attempt: No. 25
Weak spots
- Yards per carryOffenseNo. 120LSU yards per carry allowed: No. 7
- Sacks allowed (rate)OffenseNo. 119LSU sack rate (defense): No. 2
- GiveawaysOffenseNo. 114LSU takeaways: No. 100
LSU
Strengths
- Sack rate (defense)DefenseNo. 2Texas sacks allowed (rate): No. 119
- Yards per carry allowedDefenseNo. 7Texas yards per carry: No. 120
- Yards per play allowedDefenseNo. 9Texas yards per play: No. 96
Weak spots
- TakeawaysDefenseNo. 100Texas giveaways: No. 114
- GiveawaysOffenseNo. 96Texas takeaways: No. 88
- Red-zone TD rate allowedDefenseNo. 72Texas red-zone td rate: No. 65
Swing stats
The stats that swing close games: turnovers, third down, the red zone and sacks. Season figures, national rank under each.
| Stat | Texas | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| Turnover margin (season) | −410 forced, 14 lost | −49 forced, 13 lost |
| Third-down rate | 40.3%No. 67 | 50.0%No. 13 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 31.7%No. 21 | 30.4%No. 12 |
| Red-zone TD rate | 61.8%No. 65 | 66.7%No. 40 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 36.4%No. 7 | 59.1%No. 72 |
| Sacks allowed (rate) | 8.0%No. 119 | 4.4%No. 45 |
| Sack rate (defense) | 7.5%No. 23 | 11.6%No. 2 |
The line
Shown for information. The betting line is not an input to the machine, and nothing here is picks or advice. 6 pulls this week, Nov 9 to Nov 13.
- LSU by 3.5 on Nov 9, LSU by 4.5 now (Nov 13).
- It has moved 1 point toward LSU.
- Step by step: LSU by 3.5 → LSU by 4 → LSU by 4.5.
- A look-ahead line on Nov 5, before this game week, had LSU by 5.5. It is not counted in the move.
- For comparison, the machine's margin is LSU by 2.6; the betting line is LSU by 4.5.
Game-day notes
Information only. The weather is not in the machine's number; a confirmed starting-quarterback absence already is.
- Kickoff forecast (as of Nov 13): 57°F, wind 5 mph, no rain or snow.
The machine's number counts one kind of news: a confirmed absence of a starting quarterback. It does not use other injuries, weather or news, and knows nothing about suspensions or depth charts. Any weather or quarterback notes on this page are information, not inputs.
Pre-game numbers, saved Nov 13, 12:52 AM ET: the machine's chance and margin as frozen Nov 12, 5:16 PM ET; ratings, ranks and records after Week 10; season stats as of Nov 11, 12:11 PM ET. They are never recomputed after kickoff; the final score is added once the game is played. Edge = the better side by at least 30 places in the national ranks; anything closer is even.