Week 11 · Saturday, Nov 14 · 7:00 PM ET · Hancock Whitney Stadium
Troy at South Alabama
The machine favors South Alabama by 3.0 (the machine's margin) and gives it 58% to win.
After Week 10 the machine rates South Alabama No. 107 and Troy No. 112, 0.5 points apart; South Alabama is at home. The widest gap on the field: Troy's yards per carry ranks No. 70 and South Alabama's defense against it ranks No. 133, an edge to Troy's offense.
When Troy has the ball
Troy's offense against South Alabama's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | Troy offense | South Alabama defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 22.3No. 107 | 32.2No. 122 | Even |
| Yards per play | 5.2No. 114 | 6.9No. 134 | Even |
| Yards per carry | 4.4No. 70 | 5.4No. 133 | TROY offense |
| Yards per pass attempt | 6.2No. 127 | 8.5No. 134 | Even |
| Explosive pass rate | 8.3%No. 119 | 12.9%No. 125 | Even |
When South Alabama has the ball
South Alabama's offense against Troy's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | South Alabama offense | Troy defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 32.4No. 41 | 26.2No. 84 | USA offense |
| Yards per play | 5.9No. 66 | 5.4No. 58 | Even |
| Yards per carry | 4.7No. 49 | 3.9No. 62 | Even |
| Yards per pass attempt | 7.9No. 46 | 6.6No. 40 | Even |
| Explosive pass rate | 10.1%No. 78 | 7.7%No. 25 | TROY defense |
Strengths and weak spots
Each team's three best and three worst national ranks on a fixed list of 18 headline stats, each set against the other team's rank on the matching stat.
Troy
Strengths
- Explosive passes allowedDefenseNo. 25South Alabama explosive pass rate: No. 78
- TakeawaysDefenseNo. 25South Alabama giveaways: No. 23
- Yards per pass attempt allowedDefenseNo. 40South Alabama yards per pass attempt: No. 46
Weak spots
- Third-down rateOffenseNo. 130South Alabama third-down rate allowed: No. 111
- Yards per pass attemptOffenseNo. 127South Alabama yards per pass attempt allowed: No. 134
- GiveawaysOffenseNo. 124South Alabama takeaways: No. 58
South Alabama
Strengths
- GiveawaysOffenseNo. 23Troy takeaways: No. 25
- Red-zone TD rateOffenseNo. 35Troy red-zone td rate allowed: No. 46
- Points per gameOffenseNo. 41Troy points allowed per game: No. 84
Weak spots
- Red-zone TD rate allowedDefenseNo. 135Troy red-zone td rate: No. 61
- Yards per play allowedDefenseNo. 134Troy yards per play: No. 114
- Yards per pass attempt allowedDefenseNo. 134Troy yards per pass attempt: No. 127
Swing stats
The stats that swing close games: turnovers, third down, the red zone and sacks. Season figures, national rank under each.
| Stat | Troy | South Alabama |
|---|---|---|
| Turnover margin (season) | 015 forced, 15 lost | +512 forced, 7 lost |
| Third-down rate | 31.3%No. 130 | 40.0%No. 74 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 35.5%No. 42 | 42.3%No. 111 |
| Red-zone TD rate | 62.5%No. 61 | 68.8%No. 35 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 54.5%No. 46 | 80.6%No. 135 |
| Sacks allowed (rate) | 5.8%No. 78 | 4.5%No. 48 |
| Sack rate (defense) | 4.5%No. 100 | 5.7%No. 73 |
The line
Shown for information. The betting line is not an input to the machine, and nothing here is picks or advice. 3 pulls this week, Nov 9 to Nov 11.
- South Alabama by 2.5 on Nov 9, South Alabama by 3 now (Nov 11).
- It has moved 0.5 points toward South Alabama.
- For comparison, the machine's margin is South Alabama by 3.0; the betting line is South Alabama by 3.
Game-day notes
Information only. The weather is not in the machine's number; a confirmed starting-quarterback absence already is.
- Kickoff forecast (as of Nov 13): 50°F, wind 5 mph, no rain or snow.
The machine's number counts one kind of news: a confirmed absence of a starting quarterback. It does not use other injuries, weather or news, and knows nothing about suspensions or depth charts. Any weather or quarterback notes on this page are information, not inputs.
Pre-game numbers, saved Nov 13, 12:52 AM ET: the machine's chance and margin as frozen Nov 12, 5:16 PM ET; ratings, ranks and records after Week 10; season stats as of Nov 11, 12:11 PM ET. They are never recomputed after kickoff; the final score is added once the game is played. Edge = the better side by at least 30 places in the national ranks; anything closer is even.
Troy team page · South Alabama team page · All of this week's games