The Machine

Navy

American Athletic · 3-6CFP unranked

Navy is 3-6 and No. 76 of 138 in the machine's ratings, 3.2 points below an average FBS team. Last game: won 42-35 vs Temple in Week 10.

Machine rankNo. 76of all FBS teams
Rating now−3.23.2 points below an average FBS team
Since July−2.5from −0.7 in the preseason rating

Why Navy is No. 76

  • Navy's rating is −3.2: the machine's estimate that Navy is 3.2 points worse than an average FBS team on a neutral field. That is No. 76 of 138. For scale, 0 is an average FBS team: right now the closest to it is No. 68 Arizona State (0.2).
  • It started the season at −0.7, ESPN's preseason Football Power Index from July. Its results since have moved it down 2.5.
  • The biggest weekly moves: −2.6 after Week 2 (L 30-38 at Florida Atlantic) and +2.5 after Week 6 (W 34-26 vs Tulsa).
  • Its record is 3-6. The 6 losses were to No. 5 Notre Dame, No. 62 North Texas, No. 77 UTSA, No. 82 Air Force, No. 101 Florida Atlantic, No. 110 UAB, by 8.8 points on average. The 3 wins came by 14.0 points on average; the best was over No. 81 Tulsa. The rating weighs how much a team won or lost by and against whom, not just the win-loss count.
  • Its FBS opponents so far average No. 78 in the machine's ratings.
  • Just above is No. 75 NC State (−2.9); just below is No. 77 UTSA (−3.5).

The rating, week by week

Strengths and weak spots

Head coach

Brian Newberry is in his 4th season at Navy (since 2023). This season: 3-6. At Navy overall: 29-18, counting this season.

Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com.

Team stats

Season totals and averages over 9 games, each with its national rank among 138 FBS teams (No. 1 = best). The game-by-game story is in the season, week by week.

Passing

Completions-attempts52-107
Passing yards1047
Touchdowns-interceptions8-3
Yards per attempt*10.0No. 3 of 138
Explosive pass rate15.9%No. 4 of 138
Sacks allowed (rate)7.1%No. 106 of 138

Rushing

Carries-yards493-2683
Yards per carry5.4No. 12 of 138
10-plus-yard runs (rate)15.6%No. 42 of 138
Stuffed at or behind the line (rate)12.9%No. 8 of 138

Scoring

Points per game29.2No. 62 of 138
Yards per play6.37No. 32 of 138
Third-down rate40.2%No. 69 of 138
Red-zone TD rate73.3%No. 15 of 138
Giveaways12No. 82 of 138

Defense

Points allowed per game30.4No. 113 of 138
Yards per play allowed5.99No. 107 of 138
Yards per pass attempt allowed9.1No. 136 of 138
Yards per carry allowed3.4No. 27 of 138
Sack rate7.0%No. 38 of 138
Takeaways6No. 134 of 138
Third-down rate allowed42.7%No. 114 of 138

Totals are the official box score. * Yards per attempt and the rates come from the play-by-play, where passing yards count on completions only, so they can differ from the box score by a play or two.

Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com.

Player leaders

The top 3 in each category over the same games. Passing yards count every completion (official box score).

Passing

  1. Jackson Gutierrez42-82, 895 yds, 8 TD, 2 INT
  2. Braxton Woodson10-25, 152 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

Rushing

  1. Jackson Gutierrez207 carries, 1162 yds, 18 TD
  2. Michael Barrow112 carries, 613 yds, 1 TD
  3. Braxton Woodson51 carries, 391 yds, 5 TD

Receiving

  1. Jordan Collins8 catches, 324 yds, 4 TD
  2. Truman Brasfield4 catches, 174 yds, 2 TD
  3. Michael Barrow12 catches, 105 yds, 1 TD

Tackles

  1. Coleman Cauley67
  2. MarcAnthony Parker61
  3. Giuseppe Sessi54

Sacks

  1. MarcAnthony Parker4
  2. Aiden Lyczek3.5
  3. Coleman Cauley3.5

Interceptions

  1. Giuseppe Sessi2
  2. Ira Oniha1
  3. Matthew Seliga1

Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com.

Who's playing

Based on who has actually played this season, from the box scores, not the team's published depth chart. Each bar is that player's share of the team's attempts, carries (quarterbacks left out), catches or tackles. The box score lists no positions, so there is no offensive line here.

Throwing

  1. Jackson GutierrezMost passes in the last game8 games82 attempts77%
  2. Braxton Woodson6 games25 attempts23%

Carrying

  1. Michael Barrow9 games112 carries50%
  2. Vic Listorti9 games50 carries22%
  3. Charles Robinson4 games12 carries5%
  4. Jaydn Jones3 games9 carries4%

Catching

  1. Michael Barrow7 games12 catches23%
  2. Charles Robinson4 games10 catches19%
  3. Jordan Collins5 games8 catches15%
  4. Luke Hutchison3 games5 catches10%

Tackling

  1. Coleman Cauley9 games67 tackles12%
  2. MarcAnthony Parker9 games61 tackles11%
  3. Giuseppe Sessi9 games54 tackles10%
  4. Aiden Lyczek9 games44 tackles8%

Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com.

The season, week by week

  1. Week 1 W 42–15 vs Towson. Towson is an FCS team, so there is no FBS baseline to grade this one against.
  2. Week 2 L 30–38 at Florida Atlantic. The pass defense gave ground: Florida Atlantic got 11.9 yards an attempt, 4.7 over what it usually gains. Lost the turnover battle by 2.
  3. Week 4 L 20–24 at UAB. The pass defense gave ground: UAB got 8.7 yards an attempt, 2.5 over what it usually gains. The machine had Navy by 7.6 (68%), so this was a loss it did not see coming.
  4. Week 5 L 9–14 at Air Force. The run defense was the strength: Air Force got 3.2 yards a carry, 2.2 under what it usually gains. Its fewest yards a carry of the season.
  5. Week 6 W 34–26 vs Tulsa. The run game was the strength: 5.8 yards a carry, 1.8 more than Tulsa usually allows. Lost the turnover battle by 4.
  6. Week 7 L 34–38 at UTSA. The pass defense gave ground: UTSA got 9.4 yards an attempt, 2.6 over what it usually gains.
  7. Week 8 L 39–49 vs North Texas. The pass defense gave ground: North Texas got 13.3 yards an attempt, 4.4 over what it usually gains. The most yards an attempt it has allowed all season.
  8. Week 9 L 13–35 vs Notre Dame (neutral site). The run defense gave ground: Notre Dame got 7.0 yards a carry, 2.3 over what it usually gains. The most yards a carry it has allowed all season.
  9. Week 10 W 42–35 vs Temple. The passing game was the strength: 16.2 yards an attempt, 8.2 more than Temple usually allows. Its most yards an attempt of the season.

How to read this