The Machine

Air Force

Mountain West · 7-2CFP unranked

Air Force is 7-2 and No. 82 of 138 in the machine's ratings, 4.1 points below an average FBS team. Last game: won 24-21 at Army in Week 10.

Week 11: vs San José State, Saturday, Nov 14: the matchup, unit by unit

Machine rankNo. 82of all FBS teams
Rating now−4.14.1 points below an average FBS team
Since July+2.7from −6.8 in the preseason rating

Why Air Force is No. 82

  • Air Force's rating is −4.1: the machine's estimate that Air Force is 4.1 points worse than an average FBS team on a neutral field. That is No. 82 of 138. For scale, 0 is an average FBS team: right now the closest to it is No. 68 Arizona State (0.2).
  • It started the season at −6.8, ESPN's preseason Football Power Index from July. Its results since have moved it up 2.7.
  • The biggest weekly moves: +1.9 after Week 4 (W 36-33 at Nevada) and +1.5 after Week 6 (W 28-7 at Northern Illinois).
  • Its record is 7-2. The 2 losses were to No. 69 North Dakota State, No. 103 Wyoming, by 10.0 points on average. The 7 wins came by 12.1 points on average; the best was over No. 76 Navy. The rating weighs how much a team won or lost by and against whom, not just the win-loss count.
  • Its FBS opponents so far average No. 93 in the machine's ratings.
  • Just above is No. 81 Tulsa (−4.0); just below is No. 83 South Florida (−4.4).

The rating, week by week

Strengths and weak spots

Head coach

Troy Calhoun is in his 20th season at Air Force (since 2007). This season: 7-2. At Air Force overall: 146-99, counting this season.

Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com.

Team stats

Season totals and averages over 9 games, each with its national rank among 138 FBS teams (No. 1 = best). The game-by-game story is in the season, week by week.

Passing

Completions-attempts39-77
Passing yards551
Touchdowns-interceptions5-4
Yards per attempt*7.1No. 85 of 138
Explosive pass rate16.7%No. 2 of 138
Sacks allowed (rate)7.1%No. 105 of 138

Rushing

Carries-yards569-2988
Yards per carry5.3No. 15 of 138
10-plus-yard runs (rate)13.0%No. 85 of 138
Stuffed at or behind the line (rate)9.1%No. 1 of 138

Scoring

Points per game28.7No. 66 of 138
Yards per play5.46No. 101 of 138
Third-down rate51.2%No. 10 of 138
Red-zone TD rate65.8%No. 44 of 138
Giveaways7No. 18 of 138

Defense

Points allowed per game21.4No. 42 of 138
Yards per play allowed5.63No. 77 of 138
Yards per pass attempt allowed7.0No. 61 of 138
Yards per carry allowed4.6No. 93 of 138
Sack rate5.5%No. 78 of 138
Takeaways8No. 113 of 138
Third-down rate allowed35.7%No. 44 of 138

Totals are the official box score. * Yards per attempt and the rates come from the play-by-play, where passing yards count on completions only, so they can differ from the box score by a play or two.

In at least one game this season, the team box score and the player box score disagree by a few plays or yards. The team totals above use the team box score; the player leaders use the player box score.

Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com.

Player leaders

The top 3 in each category over the same games. Passing yards count every completion (official box score).

Passing

  1. Liam Szarka19-38, 296 yds, 1 TD, 4 INT
  2. Evan Medders14-22, 176 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT
  3. Howard Fisher IV3-9, 36 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

Rushing

  1. Evan Medders86 carries, 549 yds, 7 TD
  2. Kemper Hodges88 carries, 520 yds, 7 TD
  3. Owen Allen108 carries, 450 yds, 3 TD

Receiving

  1. Simon Kibbee10 catches, 166 yds, 1 TD
  2. Matt Long9 catches, 123 yds, 2 TD
  3. Adam Hrynciw5 catches, 89 yds, 1 TD

Tackles

  1. Blake Fletcher85
  2. Dallas Daley51
  3. Max Mustell38

Sacks

  1. Max Mustell3
  2. Jaylin Reese2.5
  3. Blake Fletcher2

Interceptions

  1. Blake Fletcher2
  2. Korey Johnson2
  3. Max Mustell1

Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com.

Who's playing

Based on who has actually played this season, from the box scores, not the team's published depth chart. Each bar is that player's share of the team's attempts, carries (quarterbacks left out), catches or tackles. The box score lists no positions, so there is no offensive line here.

Throwing

  1. Liam Szarka4 games38 attempts50%
  2. Evan MeddersMost passes in the last game6 games22 attempts29%
  3. Howard Fisher IV2 games9 attempts12%
  4. Josh Johnson1 game4 attempts5%

Carrying

  1. Owen Allen9 games108 carries28%
  2. Kemper Hodges8 games88 carries23%
  3. Rocco Conti9 games66 carries17%
  4. Gage LaDue8 games61 carries16%

Catching

  1. Simon Kibbee6 games10 catches26%
  2. Matt Long6 games9 catches23%
  3. Adam Hrynciw4 games5 catches13%
  4. Grant Wayne2 games3 catches8%

Tackling

  1. Blake Fletcher9 games85 tackles19%
  2. Dallas Daley9 games51 tackles11%
  3. Max Mustell8 games38 tackles8%
  4. Korey Johnson9 games36 tackles8%

Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com.

The season, week by week

  1. Week 1 W 34–0 vs Duquesne. Duquesne is an FCS team, so there is no FBS baseline to grade this one against. Won the turnover battle by 2.
  2. Week 2 L 32–38 vs North Dakota State. The passing game was the strength: 11.9 yards an attempt, 6.9 more than North Dakota State usually allows. Its most yards an attempt of the season.
  3. Week 4 W 36–33 at Nevada. The run defense gave ground: Nevada got 5.3 yards a carry, 1.4 over what it usually gains. The machine had Nevada by 1.2 (54%), so this was a win it did not see coming.
  4. Week 5 W 14–9 vs Navy. The pass defense was the strength: Navy got 7.9 yards an attempt, 3.0 under what it usually gains. Its fewest yards a carry of the season.
  5. Week 6 W 28–7 at Northern Illinois. The run game was the strength: 6.6 yards a carry, 1.4 more than Northern Illinois usually allows.
  6. Week 7 W 41–31 vs UNLV. The run game was the strength: 6.9 yards a carry, 2.0 more than UNLV usually allows. Won the turnover battle by 2.
  7. Week 8 L 14–28 at Wyoming. The run defense gave ground: Wyoming got 7.8 yards a carry, 2.6 over what it usually gains. The machine had Air Force by 6.5 (66%), so this was a loss it did not see coming; Air Force lost the turnover battle by 3.
  8. Week 9 W 35–26 vs UConn. The run game was the strength: 4.9 yards a carry, 1.2 more than UConn usually allows.
  9. Week 10 W 24–21 at Army. The pass defense was the strength: Army got 3.8 yards an attempt, 2.9 under what it usually gains. The machine had Army by 2.4 (57%), so this was a win it did not see coming.

How to read this