Week 11 · Saturday, Nov 14 · 7:00 PM ET · Falcon Stadium
San José State at Air Force
The machine favors Air Force by 10.6 (the machine's margin) and gives it 75% to win.
After Week 10 the machine rates Air Force No. 82 and San José State No. 116, 8.1 points apart; Air Force is at home. The widest gap on the field: San José State's points per game ranks No. 115 and Air Force's defense against it ranks No. 42, an edge to Air Force's defense.
When San José State has the ball
San José State's offense against Air Force's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | San José State offense | Air Force defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 20.9No. 115 | 21.4No. 42 | AF defense |
| Yards per play | 5.4No. 104 | 5.6No. 77 | Even |
| Yards per carry | 3.5No. 124 | 4.6No. 93 | AF defense |
| Yards per pass attempt | 7.4No. 73 | 7.0No. 61 | Even |
| Explosive pass rate | 9.4%No. 92 | 10.5%No. 94 | Even |
When Air Force has the ball
Air Force's offense against San José State's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | Air Force offense | San José State defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 28.7No. 66 | 22.0No. 47 | Even |
| Yards per play | 5.5No. 101 | 5.4No. 52 | SJSU defense |
| Yards per carry | 5.3No. 15 | 4.0No. 71 | AF offense |
| Yards per pass attempt | 7.1No. 85 | 6.9No. 56 | Even |
| Explosive pass rate | 16.7%No. 2 | 7.5%No. 20 | Even |
Strengths and weak spots
Each team's three best and three worst national ranks on a fixed list of 18 headline stats, each set against the other team's rank on the matching stat.
San José State
Strengths
- Sack rate (defense)DefenseNo. 8Air Force sacks allowed (rate): No. 105
- Explosive passes allowedDefenseNo. 20Air Force explosive pass rate: No. 2
- TakeawaysDefenseNo. 34Air Force giveaways: No. 18
Weak spots
- Third-down rateOffenseNo. 133Air Force third-down rate allowed: No. 44
- Red-zone TD rateOffenseNo. 132Air Force red-zone td rate allowed: No. 42
- Yards per carryOffenseNo. 124Air Force yards per carry allowed: No. 93
Air Force
Strengths
- Explosive pass rateOffenseNo. 2San José State explosive passes allowed: No. 20
- Third-down rateOffenseNo. 10San José State third-down rate allowed: No. 54
- Yards per carryOffenseNo. 15San José State yards per carry allowed: No. 71
Weak spots
- TakeawaysDefenseNo. 113San José State giveaways: No. 54
- Sacks allowed (rate)OffenseNo. 105San José State sack rate (defense): No. 8
- Yards per playOffenseNo. 101San José State yards per play allowed: No. 52
Swing stats
The stats that swing close games: turnovers, third down, the red zone and sacks. Season figures, national rank under each.
| Stat | San José State | Air Force |
|---|---|---|
| Turnover margin (season) | +414 forced, 10 lost | +18 forced, 7 lost |
| Third-down rate | 30.4%No. 133 | 51.2%No. 10 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 36.4%No. 54 | 35.7%No. 44 |
| Red-zone TD rate | 41.4%No. 132 | 65.8%No. 44 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 63.6%No. 94 | 54.2%No. 42 |
| Sacks allowed (rate) | 6.1%No. 89 | 7.1%No. 105 |
| Sack rate (defense) | 9.2%No. 8 | 5.5%No. 78 |
The line
Shown for information. The betting line is not an input to the machine, and nothing here is picks or advice. 4 pulls this week, Nov 9 to Nov 13.
- Air Force by 11.5 on Nov 9, Air Force by 12.5 now (Nov 13).
- It has moved 1 point toward Air Force.
- For comparison, the machine's margin is Air Force by 10.6; the betting line is Air Force by 12.5.
Game-day notes
Information only. The weather is not in the machine's number; a confirmed starting-quarterback absence already is.
- Kickoff forecast (as of Nov 13): 42°F, wind 5 mph, no rain or snow.
The machine's number counts one kind of news: a confirmed absence of a starting quarterback. It does not use other injuries, weather or news, and knows nothing about suspensions or depth charts. Any weather or quarterback notes on this page are information, not inputs.
Colours: San José State in its second colour on the light page, because the two teams' colours are too alike there, so the two sides are easy to tell apart. Pre-game numbers, saved Nov 13, 12:52 AM ET: the machine's chance and margin as frozen Nov 12, 5:16 PM ET; ratings, ranks and records after Week 10; season stats as of Nov 11, 12:11 PM ET. They are never recomputed after kickoff; the final score is added once the game is played. Edge = the better side by at least 30 places in the national ranks; anything closer is even.
San José State team page · Air Force team page · All of this week's games