The Machine

San José State

Mountain West · 5-5CFP unranked

San José State is 5-5 and No. 116 of 138 in the machine's ratings, 12.2 points below an average FBS team. Last game: won 30-19 vs Northern Illinois in Week 10.

Week 11: at Air Force, Saturday, Nov 14: the matchup, unit by unit

Machine rankNo. 116of all FBS teams
Rating now−12.212.2 points below an average FBS team
Since July+2.1from −14.3 in the preseason rating

Why San José State is No. 116

  • San José State's rating is −12.2: the machine's estimate that San José State is 12.2 points worse than an average FBS team on a neutral field. That is No. 116 of 138. For scale, 0 is an average FBS team: right now the closest to it is No. 68 Arizona State (0.2).
  • It started the season at −14.3, ESPN's preseason Football Power Index from July. Its results since have moved it up 2.1.
  • The biggest weekly moves: +4.9 after Week 1 (L 26-42 at USC) and −1.8 after Week 6 (L 13-16 vs Wyoming).
  • Its record is 5-5. The 5 losses were to No. 19 USC, No. 48 New Mexico, No. 72 Fresno State, No. 93 Nevada, No. 103 Wyoming, by 11.0 points on average. The 5 wins came by 8.8 points on average; the best was over No. 104 Hawai'i. The rating weighs how much a team won or lost by and against whom, not just the win-loss count.
  • Its FBS opponents so far average No. 93 in the machine's ratings.
  • Just above is No. 115 Arkansas State (−12.1); just below is No. 117 Central Michigan (−12.7).

The rating, week by week

Strengths and weak spots

Head coach

Ken Niumatalolo is in his 3rd season at San José State (since 2024). This season: 5-5. At San José State overall: 15-20, counting this season.

Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com.

Team stats

Season totals and averages over 10 games, each with its national rank among 138 FBS teams (No. 1 = best). The game-by-game story is in the season, week by week.

Passing

Completions-attempts188-310
Passing yards2282
Touchdowns-interceptions13-8
Yards per attempt*7.4No. 73 of 138
Explosive pass rate9.4%No. 92 of 138
Sacks allowed (rate)6.1%No. 89 of 138

Rushing

Carries-yards331-1169
Yards per carry3.5No. 124 of 138
10-plus-yard runs (rate)12.4%No. 104 of 138
Stuffed at or behind the line (rate)20.5%No. 116 of 138

Scoring

Points per game20.9No. 115 of 138
Yards per play5.43No. 104 of 138
Third-down rate30.4%No. 133 of 138
Red-zone TD rate41.4%No. 132 of 138
Giveaways10No. 54 of 138

Defense

Points allowed per game22.0No. 47 of 138
Yards per play allowed5.38No. 52 of 138
Yards per pass attempt allowed6.9No. 56 of 138
Yards per carry allowed4.0No. 71 of 138
Sack rate9.2%No. 8 of 138
Takeaways14No. 34 of 138
Third-down rate allowed36.4%No. 54 of 138

Totals are the official box score. * Yards per attempt and the rates come from the play-by-play, where passing yards count on completions only, so they can differ from the box score by a play or two.

Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com.

Player leaders

The top 3 in each category over the same games. Passing yards count every completion (official box score).

Passing

  1. Luke Weaver154-242, 1810 yds, 11 TD, 8 INT
  2. Daniel Rolovich28-53, 424 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
  3. Robert McDaniel6-13, 48 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

Rushing

  1. Jabari Bates163 carries, 682 yds, 1 TD
  2. Viliami Teu66 carries, 335 yds, 5 TD
  3. Isaiah Carlson16 carries, 62 yds, 0 TD

Receiving

  1. Carson Clark61 catches, 689 yds, 5 TD
  2. Jerry Mcclure36 catches, 356 yds, 1 TD
  3. Cooper Hoch23 catches, 338 yds, 3 TD

Tackles

  1. Dylan Lee88
  2. Naseri Danielson70
  3. Caleb Womack67

Sacks

  1. Jayland McGlothen7
  2. Aizik Mahuka4.5
  3. Jeremiah Tuiileila4.5

Interceptions

  1. Dylan Lee4
  2. Caleb Womack2
  3. Jayden Robertson2

Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com.

Who's playing

Based on who has actually played this season, from the box scores, not the team's published depth chart. Each bar is that player's share of the team's attempts, carries (quarterbacks left out), catches or tackles. The box score lists no positions, so there is no offensive line here.

Throwing

  1. Luke Weaver8 games242 attempts78%
  2. Daniel RolovichMost passes in the last game3 games53 attempts17%
  3. Robert McDaniel1 game13 attempts4%

Carrying

  1. Jabari Bates9 games163 carries67%
  2. Viliami Teu9 games66 carries27%
  3. Isaiah Carlson5 games16 carries7%

Catching

  1. Carson Clark10 games61 catches32%
  2. Jerry Mcclure10 games36 catches19%
  3. Cooper Hoch6 games23 catches12%
  4. Anthony Ivey6 games15 catches8%

Tackling

  1. Dylan Lee10 games88 tackles13%
  2. Naseri Danielson10 games70 tackles10%
  3. Caleb Womack10 games67 tackles10%
  4. Tuli Tagovailoa-Amosa10 games62 tackles9%

Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com.

The season, week by week

  1. Week 1 L 26–42 at USC. The pass defense gave ground: USC got 9.5 yards an attempt, 1.1 over what it usually gains. The most yards an attempt it has allowed all season.
  2. Week 1 W 27–21 at Eastern Michigan. The pass defense was the strength: Eastern Michigan got 4.0 yards an attempt, 1.7 under what it usually gains. The fewest yards an attempt it has allowed all season.
  3. Week 2 W 30–20 vs Cal Poly. Cal Poly is an FCS team, so there is no FBS baseline to grade this one against.
  4. Week 3 L 10–26 vs Fresno State. The run game struggled: 2.8 yards a carry, 1.7 less than Fresno State usually allows. Lost the turnover battle by 4.
  5. Week 5 W 20–16 at Hawai'i. The run game struggled: 2.3 yards a carry, 2.9 less than Hawai'i usually allows. The machine had Hawai'i by 2.0 (56%), so this was a win it did not see coming; San José State won the turnover battle by 2.
  6. Week 6 L 13–16 vs Wyoming. The run game struggled: 2.7 yards a carry, 2.3 less than Wyoming usually allows. The machine had San José State by 7.1 (68%), so this was a loss it did not see coming.
  7. Week 7 W 24–11 at UTEP. The pass defense gave ground: UTEP got 8.3 yards an attempt, 3.1 over what it usually gains. The defense had 10 sacks.
  8. Week 8 L 13–28 at Nevada. The run game struggled: 2.2 yards a carry, 2.2 less than Nevada usually allows. Its fewest yards an attempt of the season.
  9. Week 9 L 16–21 vs New Mexico. The passing game was the strength: 8.3 yards an attempt, 2.5 more than New Mexico usually allows. Its fewest yards a carry of the season.
  10. Week 10 W 30–19 vs Northern Illinois. The run game struggled: 2.6 yards a carry, 3.2 less than Northern Illinois usually allows. Won the turnover battle by 2.

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