Week 11 · Saturday, Nov 14 · 12:00 PM ET · Davis Wade Stadium
Auburn at Mississippi State
The machine favors Auburn by 0.9 (the machine's margin) and gives it 52% to win.
After Week 10 the machine rates Auburn No. 37 and Mississippi State No. 44, 3.4 points apart; Mississippi State is at home. The widest gap on the field: Auburn's yards per carry ranks No. 77 and Mississippi State's defense against it ranks No. 26, an edge to Mississippi State's defense.
When Auburn has the ball
Auburn's offense against Mississippi State's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | Auburn offense | Mississippi State defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 24.3No. 96 | 27.8No. 100 | Even |
| Yards per play | 5.3No. 112 | 5.5No. 62 | MSST defense |
| Yards per carry | 4.2No. 77 | 3.4No. 26 | MSST defense |
| Yards per pass attempt | 6.3No. 123 | 7.6No. 101 | Even |
| Explosive pass rate | 7.5%No. 127 | 10.8%No. 98 | Even |
When Mississippi State has the ball
Mississippi State's offense against Auburn's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | Mississippi State offense | Auburn defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 26.2No. 85 | 26.3No. 86 | Even |
| Yards per play | 5.9No. 62 | 5.4No. 54 | Even |
| Yards per carry | 4.1No. 88 | 3.9No. 56 | AUB defense |
| Yards per pass attempt | 7.7No. 58 | 7.1No. 65 | Even |
| Explosive pass rate | 10.2%No. 73 | 9.1%No. 51 | Even |
Strengths and weak spots
Each team's three best and three worst national ranks on a fixed list of 18 headline stats, each set against the other team's rank on the matching stat.
Auburn
Strengths
- TakeawaysDefenseNo. 26Mississippi State giveaways: No. 81
- Sack rate (defense)DefenseNo. 45Mississippi State sacks allowed (rate): No. 131
- Third-down rateOffenseNo. 47Mississippi State third-down rate allowed: No. 70
Weak spots
- Sacks allowed (rate)OffenseNo. 134Mississippi State sack rate (defense): No. 37
- Explosive pass rateOffenseNo. 127Mississippi State explosive passes allowed: No. 98
- Yards per pass attemptOffenseNo. 123Mississippi State yards per pass attempt allowed: No. 101
Mississippi State
Strengths
- Yards per carry allowedDefenseNo. 26Auburn yards per carry: No. 77
- Red-zone TD rate allowedDefenseNo. 29Auburn red-zone td rate: No. 78
- Sack rate (defense)DefenseNo. 37Auburn sacks allowed (rate): No. 134
Weak spots
- Sacks allowed (rate)OffenseNo. 131Auburn sack rate (defense): No. 45
- Red-zone TD rateOffenseNo. 120Auburn red-zone td rate allowed: No. 112
- TakeawaysDefenseNo. 117Auburn giveaways: No. 59
Swing stats
The stats that swing close games: turnovers, third down, the red zone and sacks. Season figures, national rank under each.
| Stat | Auburn | Mississippi State |
|---|---|---|
| Turnover margin (season) | +314 forced, 11 lost | −48 forced, 12 lost |
| Third-down rate | 42.2%No. 47 | 39.7%No. 75 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 41.4%No. 103 | 38.6%No. 70 |
| Red-zone TD rate | 60.0%No. 78 | 48.1%No. 120 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 67.9%No. 112 | 48.4%No. 29 |
| Sacks allowed (rate) | 10.5%No. 134 | 8.9%No. 131 |
| Sack rate (defense) | 6.6%No. 45 | 7.0%No. 37 |
The line
Shown for information. The betting line is not an input to the machine, and nothing here is picks or advice. 4 pulls this week, Nov 9 to Nov 13.
- Auburn by 3 on Nov 9, Auburn by 2.5 now (Nov 13).
- It has moved 0.5 points toward Mississippi State.
- For comparison, the machine's margin is Auburn by 0.9; the betting line is Auburn by 2.5.
Game-day notes
Information only. The weather is not in the machine's number; a confirmed starting-quarterback absence already is.
- Kickoff forecast (as of Nov 13): 49°F, wind 8 mph, no rain or snow.
- Starting quarterback (as of Nov 13): K. Taylor, Mississippi State's starting quarterback, has been out since Oct 30. The machine's number already counts it.
The machine's number counts one kind of news: a confirmed absence of a starting quarterback. It does not use other injuries, weather or news, and knows nothing about suspensions or depth charts. Any weather or quarterback notes on this page are information, not inputs.
Pre-game numbers, saved Nov 13, 12:52 AM ET: the machine's chance and margin as frozen Nov 12, 5:16 PM ET; ratings, ranks and records after Week 10; season stats as of Nov 11, 12:11 PM ET. They are never recomputed after kickoff; the final score is added once the game is played. Edge = the better side by at least 30 places in the national ranks; anything closer is even.
Auburn team page · Mississippi State team page · All of this week's games