Mississippi State

SEC · 4-5CFP unranked

Mississippi State is 4-5 and No. 44 of 138 in the machine's ratings, 6.2 points better than an average FBS team. Last game: lost 25-23 vs Vanderbilt in Week 10.

Week 11: vs Auburn, Saturday, Nov 14: the matchup, unit by unit

Machine rankNo. 44of all FBS teams
Rating now6.26.2 points better than an average FBS team
Since July+2.1from 4.1 in the preseason rating

Why Mississippi State is No. 44

  • Mississippi State's rating is 6.2: the machine's estimate that Mississippi State is 6.2 points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field. That is No. 44 of 138. For scale, 0 is an average FBS team: right now the closest to it is No. 68 Arizona State (0.2).
  • It started the season at 4.1, ESPN's preseason Football Power Index from July. Its results since have moved it up 2.1.
  • The biggest weekly moves: +4.6 after Week 1 (W 62-13 vs UL Monroe) and +3.5 after Week 2 (W 38-13 at Minnesota).
  • Its record is 4-5. The 5 losses were to No. 2 Alabama, No. 3 LSU, No. 4 Texas, No. 16 Oklahoma, No. 55 Vanderbilt, by 20.4 points on average. The 4 wins came by 22.0 points on average; the best was over No. 11 South Carolina. The rating weighs how much a team won or lost by and against whom, not just the win-loss count.
  • Its FBS opponents so far average No. 35 in the machine's ratings.
  • Just above is No. 43 TCU (7.3); just below is No. 45 Pittsburgh (5.8).

The rating, week by week

Strengths and weak spots

Head coach

Jeff Lebby is in his 3rd season at Mississippi State (since 2024). This season: 4-5. At Mississippi State overall: 11-23, counting this season.

Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com.

Team stats

Season totals and averages over 9 games, each with its national rank among 138 FBS teams (No. 1 = best). The game-by-game story is in the season, week by week.

Passing

Completions-attempts185-286
Passing yards2226
Touchdowns-interceptions22-7
Yards per attempt*7.7No. 58 of 138
Explosive pass rate10.2%No. 73 of 138
Sacks allowed (rate)8.9%No. 131 of 138

Rushing

Carries-yards322-1336
Yards per carry4.1No. 88 of 138
10-plus-yard runs (rate)14.9%No. 50 of 138
Stuffed at or behind the line (rate)19.0%No. 97 of 138

Scoring

Points per game26.2No. 85 of 138
Yards per play5.92No. 62 of 138
Third-down rate39.7%No. 75 of 138
Red-zone TD rate48.1%No. 120 of 138
Giveaways12No. 81 of 138

Defense

Points allowed per game27.8No. 100 of 138
Yards per play allowed5.46No. 62 of 138
Yards per pass attempt allowed7.6No. 101 of 138
Yards per carry allowed3.4No. 26 of 138
Sack rate7.0%No. 37 of 138
Takeaways8No. 117 of 138
Third-down rate allowed38.6%No. 70 of 138

Totals are the official box score. * Yards per attempt and the rates come from the play-by-play, where passing yards count on completions only, so they can differ from the box score by a play or two.

Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com.

Player leaders

The top 3 in each category over the same games. Passing yards count every completion (official box score).

Passing

  1. Kamario Taylor104-159, 1460 yds, 17 TD, 4 INT
  2. Parker Puckett44-74, 390 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
  3. AJ Swann35-51, 351 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

Rushing

  1. Fluff Bothwell122 carries, 613 yds, 3 TD
  2. Kolin Wilson59 carries, 231 yds, 0 TD
  3. J.J. Hill21 carries, 167 yds, 2 TD

Receiving

  1. Anthony Evans III61 catches, 711 yds, 5 TD
  2. Sanfrisco Magee25 catches, 471 yds, 8 TD
  3. Marquis Johnson30 catches, 376 yds, 2 TD

Tackles

  1. Jardin Gilbert55
  2. Fred Clark48
  3. Tyler Lockhart48

Sacks

  1. Jaray Bledsoe3.5
  2. Will Whitson3.5
  3. Dealyn Evans2.5

Interceptions

  1. Dre Riley1
  2. Jalen Smith1

Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com.

Who's playing

Based on who has actually played this season, from the box scores, not the team's published depth chart. Each bar is that player's share of the team's attempts, carries (quarterbacks left out), catches or tackles. The box score lists no positions, so there is no offensive line here.

Throwing

  1. Kamario Taylor6 games159 attempts56%
  2. Parker Puckett5 games74 attempts26%
  3. AJ SwannMost passes in the last game2 games51 attempts18%

Carrying

  1. Fluff Bothwell8 games122 carries52%
  2. Kolin Wilson9 games59 carries25%
  3. Xavier Gayten4 games24 carries10%
  4. J.J. Hill5 games21 carries9%

Catching

  1. Anthony Evans III9 games61 catches33%
  2. Marquis Johnson9 games30 catches16%
  3. Sanfrisco Magee9 games25 catches14%
  4. Fluff Bothwell7 games18 catches10%

Tackling

  1. Jardin Gilbert8 games55 tackles8%
  2. Fred Clark7 games48 tackles7%
  3. Tyler Lockhart7 games48 tackles7%
  4. Amarien Jefferson9 games47 tackles7%

Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com.

The season, week by week

  1. Week 1 W 62–13 vs UL Monroe. The run game was the strength: 9.3 yards a carry, 4.6 more than UL Monroe usually allows. Its most yards a carry of the season.
  2. Week 2 W 38–13 at Minnesota. The run defense was the strength: Minnesota got 0.9 yards a carry, 2.6 under what it usually gains. Its most yards an attempt of the season.
  3. Week 3 W 41–34 at South Carolina. The passing game was the strength: 9.6 yards an attempt, 2.8 more than South Carolina usually allows.
  4. Week 4 W 31–24 vs Missouri. The passing game was the strength: 9.5 yards an attempt, 3.0 more than Missouri usually allows.
  5. Week 5 L 23–56 vs Alabama. The pass defense gave ground: Alabama got 12.7 yards an attempt, 3.9 over what it usually gains. Lost the turnover battle by 2.
  6. Week 7 L 0–31 at LSU. The run game was the strength: 4.0 yards a carry, 1.7 more than LSU usually allows. Its fewest yards an attempt of the season.
  7. Week 8 L 15–23 vs Oklahoma. The pass defense gave ground: Oklahoma got 9.4 yards an attempt, 2.4 over what it usually gains.
  8. Week 9 L 3–31 at Texas. The run defense was the strength: Texas got 1.9 yards a carry, 1.9 under what it usually gains. The offense gave up 7 sacks.
  9. Week 10 L 23–25 vs Vanderbilt. The run game struggled: 2.3 yards a carry, 2.1 less than Vanderbilt usually allows. The machine had Mississippi State by 7.4 (68%), so this was a loss it did not see coming.

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