Week 11 · Saturday, Nov 14 · 3:30 PM ET · Autzen Stadium
Michigan at Oregon
The machine favors Oregon by 9.5 (the machine's margin) and gives it 73% to win.
After Week 10 the machine rates Oregon No. 13 and Michigan No. 36, 7.1 points apart; Oregon is at home. The widest gap on the field: Michigan's yards per play ranks No. 123 and Oregon's defense against it ranks No. 42, an edge to Oregon's defense.
When Michigan has the ball
Michigan's offense against Oregon's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | Michigan offense | Oregon defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 19.6No. 126 | 22.1No. 49 | ORE defense |
| Yards per play | 5.0No. 123 | 5.2No. 42 | ORE defense |
| Yards per carry | 3.6No. 119 | 3.7No. 46 | ORE defense |
| Yards per pass attempt | 7.1No. 88 | 6.7No. 45 | ORE defense |
| Explosive pass rate | 8.0%No. 124 | 10.0%No. 77 | ORE defense |
When Oregon has the ball
Oregon's offense against Michigan's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | Oregon offense | Michigan defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 34.1No. 29 | 16.2No. 14 | Even |
| Yards per play | 6.1No. 46 | 4.3No. 4 | MICH defense |
| Yards per carry | 4.1No. 90 | 3.0No. 15 | MICH defense |
| Yards per pass attempt | 7.6No. 64 | 5.9No. 11 | MICH defense |
| Explosive pass rate | 11.5%No. 47 | 8.7%No. 42 | Even |
Strengths and weak spots
Each team's three best and three worst national ranks on a fixed list of 18 headline stats, each set against the other team's rank on the matching stat.
Michigan
Strengths
- Red-zone TD rate allowedDefenseNo. 1Oregon red-zone td rate: No. 37
- Yards per play allowedDefenseNo. 4Oregon yards per play: No. 46
- Yards per pass attempt allowedDefenseNo. 11Oregon yards per pass attempt: No. 64
Weak spots
- GiveawaysOffenseNo. 131Oregon takeaways: No. 44
- Points per gameOffenseNo. 126Oregon points allowed per game: No. 49
- Explosive pass rateOffenseNo. 124Oregon explosive passes allowed: No. 77
Oregon
Strengths
- Sacks allowed (rate)OffenseNo. 10Michigan sack rate (defense): No. 35
- Third-down rate allowedDefenseNo. 26Michigan third-down rate: No. 50
- Points per gameOffenseNo. 29Michigan points allowed per game: No. 14
Weak spots
- GiveawaysOffenseNo. 99Michigan takeaways: No. 101
- Yards per carryOffenseNo. 90Michigan yards per carry allowed: No. 15
- Third-down rateOffenseNo. 89Michigan third-down rate allowed: No. 33
Swing stats
The stats that swing close games: turnovers, third down, the red zone and sacks. Season figures, national rank under each.
| Stat | Michigan | Oregon |
|---|---|---|
| Turnover margin (season) | −89 forced, 17 lost | 013 forced, 13 lost |
| Third-down rate | 41.9%No. 50 | 37.8%No. 89 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 33.9%No. 33 | 32.6%No. 26 |
| Red-zone TD rate | 62.5%No. 59 | 67.5%No. 37 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 27.3%No. 1 | 53.6%No. 40 |
| Sacks allowed (rate) | 7.6%No. 114 | 2.4%No. 10 |
| Sack rate (defense) | 7.1%No. 35 | 6.0%No. 67 |
The line
Shown for information. The betting line is not an input to the machine, and nothing here is picks or advice. 5 pulls this week, Nov 9 to Nov 12.
- Oregon by 10.5 on Nov 9, Oregon by 10.5 now (Nov 12).
- It is back where it started this week, after moving in between.
- Step by step: Oregon by 10.5 → Oregon by 11.5 → Oregon by 10.5 → Oregon by 11.5 → Oregon by 10.5.
- A look-ahead line on Nov 5, before this game week, had Oregon by 5.5. It is not counted in the move.
- For comparison, the machine's margin is Oregon by 9.5; the betting line is Oregon by 10.5.
Game-day notes
Information only. The weather is not in the machine's number; a confirmed starting-quarterback absence already is.
- Kickoff forecast (as of Nov 13): 56°F, wind 10 mph, no rain or snow.
- Starting quarterback (as of Nov 13): Dante Moore, Oregon's starting quarterback, has been out since Oct 28. The machine's number already counts it.
The machine's number counts one kind of news: a confirmed absence of a starting quarterback. It does not use other injuries, weather or news, and knows nothing about suspensions or depth charts. Any weather or quarterback notes on this page are information, not inputs.
Colours: Michigan in its main colour on the dark page, because the two teams' colours are too alike there, so the two sides are easy to tell apart. Pre-game numbers, saved Nov 13, 12:52 AM ET: the machine's chance and margin as frozen Nov 12, 5:16 PM ET; ratings, ranks and records after Week 10; season stats as of Nov 11, 12:11 PM ET. They are never recomputed after kickoff; the final score is added once the game is played. Edge = the better side by at least 30 places in the national ranks; anything closer is even.
Michigan team page · Oregon team page · All of this week's games