Week 11 · Saturday, Nov 14 · 3:30 PM ET · Sanford Stadium
Missouri at Georgia
The machine favors Georgia by 18.0 (the machine's margin) and gives it 87% to win.
After Week 10 the machine rates Georgia No. 1 and Missouri No. 20, 15.5 points apart; Georgia is at home. The widest gap on the field: Missouri's yards per pass attempt ranks No. 59 and Georgia's defense against it ranks No. 5, an edge to Georgia's defense.
When Missouri has the ball
Missouri's offense against Georgia's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | Missouri offense | Georgia defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 30.2No. 53 | 14.0No. 7 | UGA defense |
| Yards per play | 6.2No. 42 | 4.3No. 5 | UGA defense |
| Yards per carry | 4.6No. 51 | 2.7No. 6 | UGA defense |
| Yards per pass attempt | 7.7No. 59 | 5.7No. 5 | UGA defense |
| Explosive pass rate | 12.1%No. 34 | 6.6%No. 9 | Even |
When Georgia has the ball
Georgia's offense against Missouri's defense: season averages, with each one's national rank of 138 (No. 1 = best).
| Stat | Georgia offense | Missouri defense | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 41.1No. 5 | 20.1No. 34 | Even |
| Yards per play | 7.4No. 6 | 5.0No. 32 | Even |
| Yards per carry | 5.9No. 3 | 3.0No. 16 | Even |
| Yards per pass attempt | 9.4No. 11 | 6.7No. 43 | UGA offense |
| Explosive pass rate | 14.0%No. 17 | 9.8%No. 69 | UGA offense |
Strengths and weak spots
Each team's three best and three worst national ranks on a fixed list of 18 headline stats, each set against the other team's rank on the matching stat.
Missouri
Strengths
- Sacks allowed (rate)OffenseNo. 9Georgia sack rate (defense): No. 14
- Red-zone TD rate allowedDefenseNo. 13Georgia red-zone td rate: No. 12
- Yards per carry allowedDefenseNo. 16Georgia yards per carry: No. 3
Weak spots
- Red-zone TD rateOffenseNo. 125Georgia red-zone td rate allowed: No. 114
- Third-down rateOffenseNo. 79Georgia third-down rate allowed: No. 50
- Sack rate (defense)DefenseNo. 79Georgia sacks allowed (rate): No. 38
Georgia
Strengths
- Yards per carryOffenseNo. 3Missouri yards per carry allowed: No. 16
- Yards per pass attempt allowedDefenseNo. 5Missouri yards per pass attempt: No. 59
- Yards per play allowedDefenseNo. 5Missouri yards per play: No. 42
Weak spots
- Red-zone TD rate allowedDefenseNo. 114Missouri red-zone td rate: No. 125
- Third-down rate allowedDefenseNo. 50Missouri third-down rate: No. 79
- GiveawaysOffenseNo. 40Missouri takeaways: No. 23
Swing stats
The stats that swing close games: turnovers, third down, the red zone and sacks. Season figures, national rank under each.
| Stat | Missouri | Georgia |
|---|---|---|
| Turnover margin (season) | +915 forced, 6 lost | +817 forced, 9 lost |
| Third-down rate | 39.1%No. 79 | 52.4%No. 6 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 38.7%No. 72 | 35.9%No. 50 |
| Red-zone TD rate | 44.4%No. 125 | 74.4%No. 12 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 41.7%No. 13 | 68.4%No. 114 |
| Sacks allowed (rate) | 2.3%No. 9 | 4.1%No. 38 |
| Sack rate (defense) | 5.5%No. 79 | 7.9%No. 14 |
The line
Shown for information. The betting line is not an input to the machine, and nothing here is picks or advice. 3 pulls this week, Nov 9 to Nov 12.
- Georgia by 15.5 on Nov 9, Georgia by 16.5 now (Nov 12).
- It has moved 1 point toward Georgia.
- A look-ahead line on Nov 5, before this game week, had Georgia by 12.5. It is not counted in the move.
- For comparison, the machine's margin is Georgia by 18.0; the betting line is Georgia by 16.5.
Game-day notes
Information only. The weather is not in the machine's number; a confirmed starting-quarterback absence already is.
- Kickoff forecast (as of Nov 13): 55°F, wind 7 mph, no rain or snow.
The machine's number counts one kind of news: a confirmed absence of a starting quarterback. It does not use other injuries, weather or news, and knows nothing about suspensions or depth charts. Any weather or quarterback notes on this page are information, not inputs.
Pre-game numbers, saved Nov 13, 12:52 AM ET: the machine's chance and margin as frozen Nov 12, 5:16 PM ET; ratings, ranks and records after Week 10; season stats as of Nov 11, 12:11 PM ET. They are never recomputed after kickoff; the final score is added once the game is played. Edge = the better side by at least 30 places in the national ranks; anything closer is even.
Missouri team page · Georgia team page · All of this week's games